id: a9345bae04634e859e342a5cdc79f3c8
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item_type: 1
item_id: 9b4d1fd9108e42d28606898cb8667775
item_updated_time: 1764365031681
title_diff: "[{\"diffs\":[[1,\"钱，停转了……\"]],\"start1\":0,\"start2\":0,\"length1\":0,\"length2\":7}]"
body_diff: "[{\"diffs\":[[1,\"<html>\\\r\\\n<head>\\\r\\\n  <title>钱，停转了……</title>\\\r\\\n  <basefont face=\\\"微软雅黑\\\" size=\\\"2\\\" />\\\r\\\n  <meta http-equiv=\\\"Content-Type\\\" content=\\\"text/html;charset=utf-8\\\" />\\\r\\\n  <meta name=\\\"exporter-version\\\" content=\\\"YXBJ Windows/608924 (zh-CN, DDL); Windows/10.0.0 (Win64); EDAMVersion=V2;\\\"/>\\\r\\\n  <style>\\\r\\\n\\tbody, td {\\\r\\\n\\t  font-family: 微软雅黑;\\\r\\\n\\t  font-size: 12pt;\\\r\\\n\\t}\\\r\\\n  </style>\\\r\\\n</head>\\\r\\\n<body>\\\r\\\n<a name=\\\"3693\\\"></a>\\\r\\\n<h1>钱，停转了……</h1>\\\r\\\n\\\r\\\n<div><span style=\\\"margin:0px;\\\"><div style=\\\"padding:8px 0px;margin:8px auto;max-width:700px;\\\"> <div style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;background:var(--weui-BG-2)\\\"><div style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0\\\"><div style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;zoom:1;position:relative\\\"><h1 style=\\\"margin:0;font-weight:400;padding:0;font-size:22px;line-height:1.4;margin-bottom:14px\\\"> 钱，停转了…… </h1><div style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;margin-bottom:22px;line-height:20px;font-size:0;-ms-hyphens:auto;word-wrap:break-word;-webkit-hyphens:auto;hyphens:auto\\\"><span style=\\\"padding:0;display:inline-block;vertical-align:middle;margin:0 10px 10px 0;font-size:15px;-webkit-tap-highlight-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);position:relative\\\"><a style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;text-decoration:none;-webkit-tap-highlight-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);-webkit-user-drag:none;color:var(--weui-LINK);position:relative;cursor:pointer\\\"> 智友学堂 </a></span><em style=\\\"padding:0;font-style:normal;display:inline-block;vertical-align:middle;margin:0 10px 10px 0;font-size:15px;-webkit-tap-highlight-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);color:var(--weui-FG-2)\\\"></em></div><div style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;margin-bottom:24px;font-size:15px\\\"><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;line-height:1.4;color:rgba(0,0,0,.3)\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0\\\">以下文章来源于财主家的余粮</span><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0\\\">，作者财主家没有余粮啦</span></p><a href=\\\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI3ODAxNDgxMg==&amp;mid=2247533541&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=33f05d6663ecc4e6c2d8ad8379e6c111&amp;chksm=eb5f7dd6dc28f4c0923c631a399d62911dee17699aabc1168c2dbfe334c0c4fb237e46cad04d&amp;mpshare=1&amp;scene=1&amp;srcid=1128P5A6s0AF753RU5SmT8a6&amp;sharer_shareinfo=4938fcec6a6a944ce53d24407df8bec3&amp;sharer_shareinfo_first=4938fcec6a6a944ce53d24407df8bec3#\\\" style=\\\"margin:0;text-decoration:none;-webkit-tap-highlight-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);-webkit-user-drag:none;color:var(--weui-LINK);position:relative;background-color:#f7f7f7;border-radius:8px;-webkit-user-select:none;-ms-user-select:none;user-select:none;padding:20px 16px;margin-top:16px;line-height:1.4;-ms-flex-align:center;align-items:center;display:flex;cursor:pointer\\\"><div style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;display:inline-block;background-color:#fff;border-radius:50%;-moz-border-radius:50%;-webkit-border-radius:50%;overflow:hidden;padding:0;width:40px;height:40px;margin-right:12px;vertical-align:middle\\\"><img src=\\\"钱，停转了……_files/0.jpg\\\" type=\\\"image/jpeg\\\" data-filename=\\\"0.jpg\\\" alt=\\\"\\\" style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;display:block;width:100%;height:100%;border-radius:50%;-moz-border-radius:50%;-webkit-border-radius:50%;background-color:#eee\\\"/></span></div><div style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;min-width:0;-ms-flex:1;flex:1\\\"><strong style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;color:rgba(0,0,0,.9);font-size:17px;font-weight:700;width:auto;overflow:hidden;text-overflow:ellipsis;white-space:nowrap;word-wrap:normal;display:block\\\">财主家的余粮</strong><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;position:absolute;opacity:0;overflow:hidden;left:auto;width:1px;height:1px\\\">.</span><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;color:rgba(0,0,0,.5);font-size:14px;padding-top:4px;width:auto;overflow:hidden;text-overflow:ellipsis;white-space:nowrap;word-wrap:normal\\\">让你的钱，聪明那么一点点。</p></div></a></div><div style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;font-size:var(--articleFontsize);overflow:hidden;text-align:justify;color:var(--weui-FG-HALF);position:relative;z-index:0;__visibility:hidden\\\"><blockquote style=\\\"padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;padding-left:10px;border-left:3px solid #DBDBDB;font-size:15px;padding-top:4px;margin:1em 0;color:var(--weui-FG-1)\\\"><div style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"><div style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;margin-right:16px;margin-left:16px;min-height:1em;font-family:-apple-system-font,BlinkMacSystemFont,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;,&quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;,&quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;,Arial,sans-serif;letter-spacing:0.544px;white-space:normal;color:rgb(62,62,62);font-size:15.5556px;line-height:1.75em;background-color:rgb(255,255,255);box-sizing:border-box !important;overflow-wrap:break-word !important\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-family:-apple-system-font,BlinkMacSystemFont,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;,&quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;,&quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;,Arial,sans-serif;letter-spacing:0.544px;outline:0;color:rgb(136,136,136);font-size:14px;line-height:1.75em\\\">◎ 财主家的余粮（ID：CaizhuFinance）</span><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;letter-spacing:0.544px;outline:0;color:rgb(136,136,136);font-size:14px;font-family:微软雅黑;line-height:23.2727px;text-decoration:inherit\\\"> </span><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;color:rgb(136,136,136);font-size:14px;line-height:1.75em;box-sizing:border-box !important;overflow-wrap:break-word !important\\\"></span></p><div style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;margin-bottom:0;outline:0;font-size:15px;letter-spacing:0.544px;text-wrap:wrap;color:rgba(0,0,0,0.7);font-family:-apple-system-font,BlinkMacSystemFont,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;,&quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;,&quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;,Arial,sans-serif;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)\\\"><div style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;margin-right:16px;margin-left:16px;outline:0;min-height:1em;color:rgb(62,62,62);font-size:15.5556px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;outline:0;color:rgb(136,136,136);font-family:微软雅黑;font-size:14px;text-decoration:inherit\\\">◎作者 | 财主家没有余粮啦</span><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;color:rgb(136,136,136);font-family:微软雅黑;font-size:14px;text-decoration:inherit;letter-spacing:0.544px\\\"></span></div></div></div></div></blockquote><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0\\\"><br style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">关于中国总共有多少钱的统计，分为三个层次。</span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><strong style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(219,160,95)\\\">M0=流通中的现金。</span></strong><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"></span></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">包括了居民、企业手中的现金以及银行里库存的现金，简单说，就是大家手中的现钞，以及银行里可以随时拿出来供你买东西的</span><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(219,160,95)\\\"><strong style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\">现金</strong></span><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">。<span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"></span></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><strong style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(219,160,95)\\\">M1= M0+企事业单位活期存款。</span></strong><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"></span></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">其实就是现金，然后再加上企业不需要什么成本、立即可转换成现金的钱，这个钱，其实就是所有人（包括企业）买东西会用到的钱，这个钱构成了整个社会当前</span><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(219,160,95)\\\"><strong style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\">现实的购买力</strong></span><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">，所以M1也被称为</span><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(219,160,95)\\\"><strong style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\">“狭义货币”</strong></span><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">。<span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"></span></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(219,160,95)\\\">M2=<strong style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"> M1+</strong><strong style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\">个人存款+企业定期存款+其他各种存款</strong>。</span><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"></span></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">其实就是M1，加上个人的所有储蓄存款，加上企业的定期存款，机关单位定期存款，加上其他各种存款（例如客户股票账户里的钱、委托存款等等），几乎涵盖所有可以以极低成本转换成现金的存款，是整个社会所有</span><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(219,160,95)\\\"><strong style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\">潜在的购买力统计</strong></span><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">，所以被称为</span><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(219,160,95)\\\"><strong style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\">“广义货币”</strong></span><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">。<span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"></span></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;text-align:center;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><img src=\\\"钱，停转了……_files/640.png\\\" type=\\\"image/png\\\" data-filename=\\\"640.png\\\" style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;vertical-align:bottom;height:auto !important\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">特别要强调一下，政府的</span><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(219,160,95)\\\"><strong style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\">财政存款不算在M2里面</strong></span><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">哦，因为这个财政存款，虽然也是全社会潜在购买力的来源之一，但本质上来说，政府的钱，必须转换成其他存款或现金，才能形成购买力，如果把财政存款统计进入广义货币，那就属于重复统计了。<span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"></span></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">正因为财政存款不属于M2，但可以向M2转化，所以很多时候，财政存款与广义货币M2的增速，是反向变化的。总量变化不大的情况下，财政存款增加，通常意味着实体经济潜在购买能力的降低，因为每年1、4、5、7、10是财政存款上缴月份，所以这些月份整个社会的潜在购买能力会降低，也就是通常所说的流动性减少，而3、6、9、12月（季末）是政府花钱集中的时间，M2会增加，也就是流动性会增加。<span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"></span></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">简单说——<span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"></span></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(219,160,95)\\\"><strong style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\">M0是现金，M1是现实社会购买力统计，M2是潜在社会购买力统计。</strong></span><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\"><strong style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"><span lang=\\\"EN-US\\\" style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"></span></span></strong></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">关心通货膨胀的人立马会想到，通货膨胀是不是与M1增速关系很大？<span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"></span></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">这么说吧，因为中国的CPI<span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px\\\">（消费者物价指数）</span>数据，统计的主要是老百姓用现金购买到的东西，所以中国以前的CPI增长率与M0的关系更密切一些，只有近年来<span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px\\\">（特别是疫情爆发以来）</span>，因为电子支付的普遍使用，所以与M1增速的关系也开始密切起来了。<span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"></span></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">作为当前人民币全社会现实购买力的体现，M1的增速，不止会影响通货膨胀，还会在很大程度上，影响企业和居民对经济的信心，影响中国的资产价格……<span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"></span></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">例如，自2005年中国公布官方PMI</span><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(178,178,178)\\\">（购买经理人指数）</span><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">迄今，我们可以明显观察到，PMI数据与M1增速的关系相当一致；我们也能观察到，M1增速与中国股市最重要的沪深300指数关系也相当密切。<span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"></span></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em;text-align:center\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\"><img src=\\\"钱，停转了……_files/640 [1].png\\\" type=\\\"image/png\\\" data-filename=\\\"640.png\\\" style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;vertical-align:bottom;height:auto !important\\\"/></span><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;letter-spacing:0.034em;color:rgb(178,178,178);font-size:15px\\\">数据来源：中国人民银行，国家统计局</span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em;text-align:center\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\"><img src=\\\"钱，停转了……_files/640 [2].png\\\" type=\\\"image/png\\\" data-filename=\\\"640.png\\\" style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;vertical-align:bottom;height:auto !important\\\"/></span><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;letter-spacing:0.034em;color:rgb(178,178,178);font-size:15px\\\">数据来源：中国人民银行</span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;letter-spacing:0.034em;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">很多人应该知道，中国广义货币M2增速，近年来始终维持在10%左右的水平，这也意味着，中国以人民币计价的整个社会的潜在购买力，基本维持在10%左右的增速。</span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">按道理来说，整个社会的潜在购买力以10%的速度增加，只要那些增加的潜在购买力，随便一部分转化成现实的购买力，我们的狭义货币M1增速，也能达到5%左右。<span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"></span></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">然而，现实却很魔幻——<span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"></span></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px\\\"><strong style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(219,160,95)\\\">中国的狭义货币M1同比增速，自2023年6月份迄今，已经降至2%以下，而且还在继续下降。</span></strong></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em;text-align:center\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\"><img src=\\\"钱，停转了……_files/640 [3].png\\\" type=\\\"image/png\\\" data-filename=\\\"640.png\\\" style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;vertical-align:bottom;height:auto !important\\\"/></span><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;letter-spacing:0.034em;color:rgb(178,178,178);font-size:15px\\\">数据来源：中国人民银行</span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">当然，看上面的图表，过去30年间，中国M1增速不止一次出现过增速降至0附近的情况。</span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">但，请大家注意，以往每一次降至0附近都是在发生在1月份，这是因为因为中国传统的春节来临，许多企业停工停产，还需要给员工们发放奖金什么的，由此导致企业活期存款增速遽降，带来了M1同比降至0附近。</span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">可以看出，在2023年之前，1月份之后，M1的同比增速，马上就会快速离开0附近区域……<span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"></span></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">燃鹅，从2023年7月份到现在，可不是什么节日来临、企业停工停产的时候，而是正常的生产季节，M1增速却向着0俯冲，这就太有问题了。<span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"></span></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">从M2向M1转化的角度来说——<span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"></span></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(219,160,95)\\\"><strong style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\">中国的钱，停转了。</strong></span><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\"><strong style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"></span></span></strong></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">实际上，自2022年6月M1到达67万亿元之后，此后就基本维持在该水平不增加了。<span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"></span></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em;text-align:center\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\"><img src=\\\"钱，停转了……_files/640 [4].png\\\" type=\\\"image/png\\\" data-filename=\\\"640.png\\\" style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;vertical-align:bottom;height:auto !important\\\"/></span><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;letter-spacing:0.034em;color:rgb(178,178,178);font-size:15px\\\">数据来源：中国人民银行</span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">在同一个时期，中国的广义货币M2，虽然增速略有下降，但还是在正常上升呢！<span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"></span></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">就这样，</span><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(219,160,95)\\\">过去一年多，中国经济体系里，正常的M2向M1转化的路径，似乎被掐断了。</span><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"></span></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">由此，大家也不难理解，为什么我们大A股会一路下跌了。<span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"></span></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">中国的钱，停转了，这是现实——<span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;letter-spacing:0.034em\\\">接下来，我们可以试着分析一下，M2到M1的路径，为什么会被堵上了？</span></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;color:rgb(89,89,89);font-size:17px;letter-spacing:0.034em\\\">根据</span><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(219,160,95)\\\"><strong style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing:0.034em\\\">“贷款创造存款”</strong></span><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;color:rgb(89,89,89);font-size:17px;letter-spacing:0.034em\\\">的理论，不管M1还是M2，其增加值都是来源于贷款的创造，所以，我们需要先来分析一下，过去一年的贷款情况。</span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">根据中国人民银行公布的</span><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(219,160,95)\\\"><strong style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\">“金融机构人民币信贷收支表”</strong></span><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">，过去一年中国的人民币贷款和存款余额的变动情况见下面两个表格。<span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"></span></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em;text-align:center\\\"><img src=\\\"钱，停转了……_files/640 [5].png\\\" type=\\\"image/png\\\" data-filename=\\\"640.png\\\" style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;vertical-align:bottom;height:auto !important\\\"/><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;letter-spacing:0.034em;color:rgb(178,178,178);font-size:15px\\\">数据来源：中国人民银行</span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em;text-align:center\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\"><img src=\\\"钱，停转了……_files/640 [6].png\\\" type=\\\"image/png\\\" data-filename=\\\"640.png\\\" style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;vertical-align:bottom;height:auto !important\\\"/></span><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;letter-spacing:0.034em;color:rgb(178,178,178);font-size:15px\\\">数据来源：中国人民银行</span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">去年10月份迄今的一年时间里，包括非金融企业、机关团体、居民部门、非银金融部门，总共增加了24万亿元的贷款，然后，存款余额共计增加了27万亿元。<span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"></span></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">不考虑非银金融机构贷款和存款、境外贷款和存款、政府财政存款等细碎项，我们基本可以认为，过去一年：<span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"></span></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(219,160,95)\\\">非金融企业和机关团体新增贷款18万亿，居民贷款新增5万亿元，然后，转变成16.6万亿居民定期存款、4.6万亿企业定期存款以及2.5万亿机关团体存款和2.3万亿元居民活期存款，而企业活期存款，居然减少了0.8万亿元！</span><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;color:rgb(89,89,89);font-size:17px\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"></span></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">回到前文，M1统计的是什么内容呢？<span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"></span></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">就是</span><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(219,160,95)\\\"><strong style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\">全社会现金+企事业活期存款</strong></span><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">啊！<span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"></span></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">这，也正是过去一年M1极低增速的谜底。<span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"></span></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">简单总结：<span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"></span></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(219,160,95)\\\">企事业拿到大量新增贷款，却并没有转换成自身的活期存款（M1），用于企业的经营活动，而是转手就给了居民，而居民则将这些钱变成了定期存款（M2）。</span><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"></span></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">要知道，企业的活期存款，通常被用于企业投资、购买生产物资、支付员工薪水，所以代表着真正的经济活动水平<span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px\\\">（企业定期存款代表企业积累，与当前阶段经济活动关系不大）</span>，若企业看好经济，就会将大部分贷款资金变成活期存款，然后，通过支付给其他企业和员工，</span><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(219,160,95)\\\"><strong style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\">由贷款而来的新钱，就开始在这个社会上流转……</strong></span><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\"><strong style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"></span></span></strong></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">过去一年，当企业的活期存款余额不仅没有增加，反而萎缩了，这说明企业极度不看好当前经济，不愿意扩大生产规模，而是直接将很大一部分贷款的钱，转移给了居民。</span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;letter-spacing:0.034em;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">这也意味着，过去一年18万亿元企事业单位贷款的钱，大部分并没有像往常一样，通过不断流转而支付出去……</span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">无怪乎有人说，过去一年由企业贷款所派生出来的钱：<span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"></span></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(219,160,95)\\\"><strong style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\">不是空转，而是不转！</strong></span><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\"><strong style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"></span></span></strong></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">更进一步要问了，过去一年为什么会是这样的情况？<span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important\\\"></span></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:24px;margin-left:16px;margin-right:16px;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;color:rgb(89,89,89)\\\">就这个问题，我当然是有自己的答案的——<span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;font-size:17px;letter-spacing:0.034em\\\">但我更希望的，是大家思考自己的答案。</span></span></p><hr style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;outline:0;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,&quot;system-ui&quot;,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;,&quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;,&quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;,Arial,sans-serif;letter-spacing:0.544px;text-wrap:wrap;background-color:rgb(255,255,255);border-style:solid;border-right-width:0;border-bottom-width:0;border-left-width:0;border-color:rgba(0,0,0,0.1);transform-origin:0 0;transform:scale(1,0.5)\\\"/><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-right:16px;margin-bottom:0;margin-left:16px;outline:0;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,&quot;system-ui&quot;,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;,&quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;,&quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;,Arial,sans-serif;letter-spacing:0.544px;text-wrap:wrap;background-color:rgb(255,255,255);line-height:1.75em\\\"><strong style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;outline:0\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;outline:0;color:rgb(219,160,95)\\\"></span></strong></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-right:16px;margin-bottom:0;margin-left:16px;outline:0;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;,&quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;,&quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;,Arial,sans-serif;letter-spacing:0.544px;text-wrap:wrap;background-color:rgb(255,255,255);__visibility:visible;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;outline:0;color:rgb(89,89,89);__visibility:visible\\\">智谷的读者朋友，已经更新了100+期的智谷趋势内部研判，</span><strong style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;outline:0;__visibility:visible\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;outline:0;color:rgb(123,12,0);__visibility:visible\\\">即将迎来涨价。</span></strong><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;outline:0;color:rgb(89,89,89);__visibility:visible\\\">还未订阅的朋友，</span><strong style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;outline:0;__visibility:visible\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;outline:0;color:rgb(123,12,0);__visibility:visible\\\">赶紧锁定最后的99元一年</span></strong><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;outline:0;color:rgb(89,89,89);__visibility:visible\\\">的划算价格！<br style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;outline:0;__visibility:visible\\\"/></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-right:16px;margin-bottom:0;margin-left:16px;outline:0;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;,&quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;,&quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;,Arial,sans-serif;letter-spacing:0.544px;text-wrap:wrap;background-color:rgb(255,255,255);__visibility:visible;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;outline:0;color:rgb(89,89,89);__visibility:visible\\\"><br style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;outline:0;__visibility:visible\\\"/></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-right:16px;margin-bottom:0;margin-left:16px;outline:0;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;,&quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;,&quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;,Arial,sans-serif;letter-spacing:0.544px;text-wrap:wrap;background-color:rgb(255,255,255);__visibility:visible;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;outline:0;color:rgb(89,89,89);__visibility:visible\\\">到现在，研判已有1w+订阅用户。内容上给你提供</span><strong style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;outline:0;__visibility:visible\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;outline:0;color:rgb(123,12,0);__visibility:visible\\\">宏观、政策、楼市、商业</span></strong><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;outline:0;color:rgb(89,89,89);__visibility:visible\\\">的最新趋势与变化。每周三更新一篇研判长图，周中不定时更新研判背后的完整文档、及时趋势分析。<br style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;outline:0;__visibility:visible\\\"/></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-right:16px;margin-bottom:0;margin-left:16px;outline:0;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;,&quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;,&quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;,Arial,sans-serif;letter-spacing:0.544px;text-wrap:wrap;background-color:rgb(255,255,255);__visibility:visible;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;outline:0;color:rgb(89,89,89);__visibility:visible\\\"><br style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;outline:0;__visibility:visible\\\"/></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-right:16px;margin-bottom:0;margin-left:16px;outline:0;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;,&quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;,&quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;,Arial,sans-serif;letter-spacing:0.544px;text-wrap:wrap;background-color:rgb(255,255,255);__visibility:visible;line-height:1.75em\\\"><strong style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;outline:0;__visibility:visible\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;outline:0;color:rgb(123,12,0);__visibility:visible\\\">涨价即到，快来锁定99元一年的订阅价格！</span></strong></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-right:16px;margin-bottom:0;margin-left:16px;outline:0;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;,&quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;,&quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;,Arial,sans-serif;letter-spacing:0.544px;text-wrap:wrap;background-color:rgb(255,255,255);__visibility:visible;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;outline:0;color:rgb(89,89,89);__visibility:visible\\\"><br style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;outline:0;__visibility:visible\\\"/></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-right:16px;margin-bottom:0;margin-left:16px;outline:0;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;,&quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;,&quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;,Arial,sans-serif;letter-spacing:0.544px;text-wrap:wrap;background-color:rgb(255,255,255);text-align:center;__visibility:visible;line-height:1.75em\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;outline:0;color:rgb(89,89,89);__visibility:visible\\\"><img src=\\\"钱，停转了……_files/640 [7].png\\\" type=\\\"image/png\\\" data-filename=\\\"640.png\\\" style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;vertical-align:bottom;height:auto !important;outline:0;__visibility:visible !important;width:150px !important\\\"/></span></p><p style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;clear:both;min-height:1em;margin-top:0;margin-right:16px;margin-bottom:0;margin-left:16px;outline:0;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;,&quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;,&quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;,Arial,sans-serif;letter-spacing:0.544px;text-wrap:wrap;background-color:rgb(255,255,255);text-align:center;__visibility:visible;line-height:1.75em\\\"><strong style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;outline:0;__visibility:visible\\\"><span style=\\\"margin:0;padding:0;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box !important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box !important;word-wrap:break-word !important;outline:0;color:rgb(123,12,0);__visibility:visible\\\">付款后停顿3秒，添加您的专属研判官</span></strong></p></div></div></div></div></div></span>\\\n</div></body></html>\\u0000\"]],\"start1\":0,\"start2\":0,\"length1\":0,\"length2\":70635}]"
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