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body_diff: "[{\"diffs\":[[1,\"<html>\\\r\\\n<head>\\\r\\\n  <title>价值投资的4种体系</title>\\\r\\\n  <basefont face=\\\"微软雅黑\\\" size=\\\"2\\\" />\\\r\\\n  <meta http-equiv=\\\"Content-Type\\\" content=\\\"text/html;charset=utf-8\\\" />\\\r\\\n  <meta name=\\\"exporter-version\\\" content=\\\"YXBJ Windows/608924 (zh-CN, DDL); Windows/10.0.0 (Win64); EDAMVersion=V2;\\\"/>\\\r\\\n  <meta name=\\\"content-class\\\" content=\\\"yinxiang.peso.superNote\\\"/>\\\r\\\n  <meta name=\\\"application-data:yinxiang.noteLayout\\\" content=\\\"{\\\"lineSpace\\\":\\\"recommend\\\",\\\"paragraphSpace\\\":\\\"recommend\\\"}\\\"/>\\\r\\\n  <style>\\\r\\\n\\tbody, td {\\\r\\\n\\t  font-family: 微软雅黑;\\\r\\\n\\t  font-size: 12pt;\\\r\\\n\\t}\\\r\\\n  </style>\\\r\\\n</head>\\\r\\\n<body>\\\r\\\n<a name=\\\"36147\\\"></a>\\\r\\\n<h1>价值投资的4种体系</h1>\\\r\\\n\\\r\\\n<div><span style=\\\"\\\"><div style=\\\"max-width: 700px;\\\"><p></p><div style=\\\"--en-blockquote: true; box-sizing: border-box; border-left: 3px solid #b4c0cc; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;\\\"><div>原文链接: <a href=\\\"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA5MjE3ODgzNA==&amp;mid=2652269199&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=f86abfa7309c795fc3d2e70887d9a3dc&amp;chksm=8b93da72bce45364afb7a9d9e53489a7b3728c53bee8cce9cc9d58bce9426b5da0e23508aab8&amp;mpshare=1&amp;scene=24&amp;srcid=0119s0IBiNnEmt7oxfflBuiK&amp;sharer_sharetime=1611012997189&amp;sharer_shareid=f546f148e7e4486d7d8346cfc75b1103#rd\\\"><span>http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA5MjE3ODgzNA==&amp;mid=2652269...</span></a></div></div><p></p><div style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><div style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><div style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><div style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><a style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"> 雪球 </a></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><em style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"></em></span></div><div style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\">以下文章来源于思想钢印</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\">，作者思想钢印</span></p><img src=\\\":/2558e05eefc745edad631bfe678e5209\\\" type=\\\"image/jpeg\\\" data-filename=\\\"0.jpg\\\" style=\\\"--en-marks: %7B%22link%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fmp.weixin.qq.com%2Fs%3F__biz%3DMzA5MjE3ODgzNA%3D%3D%26mid%3D2652269199%26idx%3D2%26sn%3Df86abfa7309c795fc3d2e70887d9a3dc%26chksm%3D8b93da72bce45364afb7a9d9e53489a7b3728c53bee8cce9cc9d58bce9426b5da0e23508aab8%26mpshare%3D1%26scene%3D24%26srcid%3D0119s0IBiNnEmt7oxfflBuiK%26sharer_sharetime%3D1611012997189%26sharer_shareid%3Df546f148e7e4486d7d8346cfc75b1103%23%22%2C%22align%22%3A%22center%22%7D; width: auto;\\\" width=\\\"auto\\\"/></div><div style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><img src=\\\":/682a46c065e5421a9aa8db9f1e46f2d3\\\" type=\\\"image/gif\\\" data-filename=\\\"640.gif\\\" style=\\\"--en-marks: %7B%22align%22%3A%22center%22%7D; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; width: auto;\\\" width=\\\"auto\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: right;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">作者：思想钢印9999</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: right;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">来源：雪球</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: center;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(0,122,170);\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">01</span></strong></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: center;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(0,122,170);\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">不可能三角形</span></strong></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">找到一个投资体系的核心动作并不难</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">列出自己历史上相对赚钱的交易</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">选择买入之前有明显预期</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">事实证明了你的预期的</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">最好是该类型重复出现过几次</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">然后作为模板</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">不断地重复该策略</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">并对其中的细节进行修改</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">在这个过程中</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">重要的是观察</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">“</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">赔率</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">、</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">胜率</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">、</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">交易频次</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">”</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">这三个关键的交易指标</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">因为它们是决定该体系的稳定收益率的三要素</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">任何一个投资体系</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">都很难同时三者俱高</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">这是一个典型的不可能三角形</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">作为一个好的投资体系</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">我们需要让三者处于自己能控制的最佳状态</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">并实现收益的最大化</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">本文就分析一下这三大要素的相互制衡作用</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">并用一个实际投资常见的问题</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">“</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">个股暴跌要不要抄底</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">”</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">来说明不同交易体系的不同做法</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: center;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(0,122,170);\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">02</span></strong></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: center;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(0,122,170);\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">赔率</span></strong></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">所谓赔率</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">在分析完一家公司之后</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">在交易之前</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">对未来的股价空间进行评估</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">以下图为例</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">以当前价买入</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">未来一段时间内向上空间和向下空间的比例</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">向上空间大于向下空间</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">代表赔率大于1</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">才有投资价值</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">在价值投资体系中</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">赔率与基本面有关</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">其向上空间代表未来业绩增长和估值增长在最乐观的情况下能给予的范围</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">；</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">其向下空间代表企业经营的各种风险导致的业绩增长和估值在最悲观的情况下能达到的范围</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">比如茅台</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">你可以根据未来产能与产量规划</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">根据现有利润率大致计算未来几年的利润</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">再根据历史估值给出市场乐观时的估值范围</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">计算未来几年的上升空间</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">；</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">再根据未来可能的经营风险对业绩的影响</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">并考虑近两年市场可能给出的悲观估值</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">计算向下的空间</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">前者除以后者</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">就代表赔率</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">影响赔率的第二个因素是时间</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">很多处于周期中的股票</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">一个月内的向上空间可能大于向下空间</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">；</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">但放宽到一年后</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">很可能已经是顶部</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">赔率远小于1</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">最典型的是处于繁荣期的强周期</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">由于价格还是上升</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">中短期的赔率很高</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">但长期而言</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">如果你调查后发现</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">大部分企业都在疯狂扩大产能</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">远远超过下游的需求</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">或者下游的需求都是中间商的</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">“</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">囤货</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">”</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">真实需求没有那么高</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">这两种情况都说明距离价格到顶已经不远</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">未来业绩下降的概率极大</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">长期的赔率很小</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">价值投资经常讲到</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">“</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">安全边际</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">”</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">的概念</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">安全边际就是向下的空间</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">追求极高</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">“</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">安全边际</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">”</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">被称为</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">“</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">高赔率</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">”</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">的投资体系</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">包括格雷厄姆和早期巴菲特的</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">“</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">捡烟蒂</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">”</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">理论</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">分散买入陷入困境的低价股的施洛斯的理论</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">还有</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">“</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">PB-ROE</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">”</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">策略</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">等等</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">赔率和安全边际是一个特别容易被滥用的策略</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">散户常常把</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">“</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">高赔率</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">”</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">简单地理解成便宜的股票</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">、</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">跌得多的股票</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">然而投资从来没有这么简单的事</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">赔率并非越高越好</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">事实上</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">高赔率常常代表价值陷阱</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">因为投资还有更重要的指标</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">——</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">胜率</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: center;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(0,122,170);\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">03</span></strong></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: center;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(0,122,170);\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">胜率</span></strong></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">胜率的意思是</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">如果以目前的价格买入该股票</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">未来一段时间内赚钱的可能性和赔钱的可能性的比例</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">胜率跟赔率不一样</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">赔率是一个空间概念</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">计算的是最大的向上与向下的空间</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">而胜率是一个概率</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">向上的空间大</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">并不代表之后赚钱的概率高</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><img src=\\\":/44572e069129486abdc09d9d8d1bcc34\\\" type=\\\"image/jpeg\\\" data-filename=\\\"640.jpg\\\" style=\\\"--en-marks: %7B%22align%22%3A%22center%22%7D; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; border-width: initial; border-style: none; border-color: initial; display: block; cursor: zoom-in; width: auto;\\\" width=\\\"auto\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">仍然以茅台为例</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">由于茅台处于历史估值的最高点</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">至少不是高赔率的品种</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">；</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">但由于茅台不用考虑销售的问题</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">业绩只与产量有关</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">而茅台的产量又取决于几年前基酒的产量</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">这就意味着</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">未来几年10~15%的业绩增长是极高概率的事</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">完全可以弥补估值可能的压力</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">这代表投资茅台的胜率极高</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">胜率分成长期胜率与中短期胜率</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">中短期胜率与公司的景气度有关</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">景气度是判断公司当期经营状况的指标</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">下面是比较常见的几种景气度</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">：</span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">1</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">、</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">行业涨价或需求大增</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">；</span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">2</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">、</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">公司产能提升或出现了爆款</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">；</span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">3</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">、</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">预期中的明星新产品</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">、</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">大客户或者其他引发当期业绩大增的因素</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">高景气度会提升上市公司的当期业绩</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">甚至超过大部分投资者的预期</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">导致股价当季易涨难跌</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">形成中短期的高胜率</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">不过</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">这些基本面的因素大多只对当季业绩产生作用</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">而且很容易提高投资者的预期</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">如果下一季不复存在</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">其高胜率也就不复存在</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">所以这是一个中短期的因素</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">长期的胜率与基本面的确定性有关</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">之前的文章</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">《</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">业绩增长确定性高的公司</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">它们有三大特征</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">》</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">分析过</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">确定性是对一家公司的行业空间</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">、</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">竞争格局</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">、</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">商业模式和管理因素的综合判断</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">它代表着这家公司的业绩长期稳定增长</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">如果估值不变</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">股价在周线和月线级别就长期处于上升趋势中</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">即使估值下降</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">股价也是处于震荡中</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">所以</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">长期确定性越高</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">代表长期胜率越高</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">从长期胜率的角度</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">在激烈的市场竞争中</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">业绩确定性的增长才是最好的安全边际</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">低价或低估值提供的安全边际反而是</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">“</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">玻璃底</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">”</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">从理论上说</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">一笔投资最好能共同拥有高胜率与高赔率</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">但实际上</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">两者之间存在着相互制约的关系</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: center;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(0,122,170);\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">04</span></strong></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: center;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(0,122,170);\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">胜率与赔率的关系</span></strong></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">由于上市公司本身有一定的</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">“</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">黑箱性</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">”</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">研究本身也不完备</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">为了防止</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">“</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">黑天鹅事件</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">”</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">往往有一些安全措施</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">最典型的就是止损</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">如下图所示</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">假设亏损10%实行无条件止损</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">就是当作每一笔投资向下的最大空间都是固定的</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">可以大大地提升赔率</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">；</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">但这么做的代价是胜率降低</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">因为像</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">“</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">B投资</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">”</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">那样跌破止损价又上涨的公司</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">在止损策略下就是亏的</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><img src=\\\":/cf87d311287c4c61ae894a3b2a458169\\\" type=\\\"image/jpeg\\\" data-filename=\\\"640.jpg\\\" style=\\\"--en-marks: %7B%22align%22%3A%22center%22%7D; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; border-width: initial; border-style: none; border-color: initial; display: block; cursor: zoom-in; width: auto;\\\" width=\\\"auto\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">止损策略本质上是把一笔可能的巨亏变成几个小亏</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">属于高赔率低胜率的策略</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">高胜率和高赔率本身并不矛盾</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">一定有同时具备的品种</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">但作为稳定盈利的投资体系</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">只能以其中之一为目标</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">往往要牺牲另一个因素</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">价值投资中</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">典型的高胜率投资是</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">“</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">长期持有白马股</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">”</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">这些公司的经营优势非常明显</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">业绩的确定性极强</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">只是大家都知道它们好</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">价格也没有什么优势</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">故而赔率一般</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">长期持有的收益跟指数差不多</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">一般散户没有研究能力</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">最好的方法是以持有白马股为主的</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">“</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">胜率优先</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">”</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">的策略</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">当然</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">赔率并不是不重要</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">只是不要盲目追求高赔率</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">赔率只要符合你的预期收益率就可以买入</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">这就是巴菲特后期强调的</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">“</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">优秀公司以合理的价格买入</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">”</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">短线的趋势投资也是一种典型的</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">“</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">胜率优先</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">”</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">的策略</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">比如</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">“</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">T+0</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">”</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">往往会在一波上冲中</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">方向力度最明显的一小段进行快进快出</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">常常时间只有几分钟</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">收益只有一两个点</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">但胜率非常高</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">还有</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">大部分指标量化交易都是用的</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">“</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">胜率优先</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">”</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">的策略</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">再来看</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">“</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">高赔率策略</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">”</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">典型的高赔率策略是</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">“</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">困境反转</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">”</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">：</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">买入经营处于困境而且股价很便宜的公司</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">如果你研究其基本面之后</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">认为其有反转的可能</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">此时赔率是很高的</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">但经营从困境中走出是一个小概率事件</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">因为经营的困境常常导致人才流失</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">管理失控</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">而这些内部管理问题又加剧了经营的困境</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">所以</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">“</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">困境反转</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">”</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">是一个低胜率的策略</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">通常需要多个标的进行组合投资</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">——</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">组合并不能提升胜率</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">而是防止</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">“</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">黑天鹅</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">”</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">风险</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">那么</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">“</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">高赔率高胜率</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">”</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">策略到底存在不存在呢</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">？</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">有的</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: center;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(0,122,170);\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">05</span></strong></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: center;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(0,122,170);\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">出手频次</span></strong></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(0,122,170);\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">（</span></strong></span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(0,122,170);\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">或成本</span></strong></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(0,122,170);\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">）</span></strong></span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">来看几个常见的</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">“</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">高赔率高胜率</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">”</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">的投资机会</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">第一类是白马暴跌</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">回到前文说过的赔率一般但胜率高的</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">“</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">白马长期持有策略</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">”</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">白马股虽然这几年常年都是正常甚至高估状态</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">但确实也有偶尔低估值的时候</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">以茅台为例</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">近三年</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">出现过2018年10月和2020年3月两次低估值的机会</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">此时出手</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">就是</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">“</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">高胜率高赔率</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">”</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">状态</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">但此策略的问题是这类投资机会太少了</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">如果你只做这一类机会</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">可能就是一年出手一次</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">这就是出手频次的问题</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">：</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">如果一个机会又安全收益又高</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">那么它出现的机率一般都很小</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">第二类是</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">“</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">高确定性公司的困境反转</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">”</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">类似上海机场</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">疫情总会过去</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">国际航班总会恢复</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">因此困境反转是高确定性事件</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">但问题在于拐点</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">如果拐点太晚</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">又会变成前面说的</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">“</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">高赔率胜率低频机会</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">”</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">第三类是</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">“</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">中短期高胜率</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">（</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">高景气</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">）</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">与高赔率</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">”</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">的机会</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">就是寻找景气度上升的行业</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">在股价未大幅上升时介入</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">在景气达到高点后</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">继续寻找下一个景气赛道换仓</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">这就是机构经常采用的景气度投资策略</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">实际上</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">大部分长期获得高收益的基金</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">部分仓位或者全部仓位都采用了这个策略</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">这也是当下市场能获得稳定高收益的方法</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">但非常遗憾的是</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">这一方法对散户无效</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">因为它太消耗研究资源</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">这一策略需要在主要研究方向上常年安排研究团队</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">密切跟踪行业的景气度动态</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">；</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">需要基金经理非常有判断力</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">判断景气度影响股价的临界点或催化剂</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">太早或太晚买都不行</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">；</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">还需要跟相关上市公司密切联系</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">以找到该赛道最有业绩弹性的公司</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">只有具备了这几个条件</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">才能在行业股价启动初期快速进入</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">所以</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">“</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">高景气</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">（</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">中短期确定性</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">）</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">与高赔率</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">”</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">的机会</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">非常消耗投资与研究资源</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">导致虽然基金赚钱</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">基金公司却不一定赚钱</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">第四类</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">：</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">高胜率的策略</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">赔率本身一般</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">但通过高杠杆强行实行高赔率</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">这是对冲基金普遍采用的策略</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">但它的问题是一旦遭遇</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">“</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">黑天鹅</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">”</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">就会造成巨额损失</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">上个世纪的</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">“</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">长期资本</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">”</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">事件后</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">各个对冲基金开始控制杠杆</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">降低赔率</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">这四类</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">“</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">高胜率高赔率</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">”</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">的策略</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">都有出手频次低或成本高的问题</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">最终收益率不一定有那么高</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: center;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(0,122,170);\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">06</span></strong></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: center;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(0,122,170);\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">价值投资的四种投资体系</span></strong></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">赔率</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">、</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">胜率和出手频率</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">（</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">成本</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">）</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">这三者就形成了散户投资者构建投资体系的不可能三角形</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">你的投资体系的收益率需要以某一个为主要目标</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">放弃一个</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">并努力提高一个的水平</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">短线趋势交易</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">以胜率为主要目标</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">努力提高出手频次</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">放弃赔率</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">；</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">高频量化交易</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">以出手频次为主要目标</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">努力提高胜率</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">放弃赔率</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">长期价值投资中</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">白马投资</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">以胜率为主要目标</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">放弃出手频次</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">努力提高赔率</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">；</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">或者困境反转投资</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">以赔率为主要目标</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">放弃出手频次</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">努力提高胜率</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">胜率优先的体系</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">要的是账户整体的稳定性</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">；</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">赔率优先的体系</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">抓的是个股的深度价值实现</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">想清楚你的投资体系</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">对于解决具体问题更有帮助</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">比如说</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">当股票连续下跌时</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">要不要抄底的问题</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">当股票连续下跌时</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">首先是要分析基本面逻辑有没有被破坏</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">如果破坏</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">不管是什么体系</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">都是要卖的</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">如果没有</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">接下来就跟体系有关了</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">好公司因为暂时的经营困境的连续下跌</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">会让你陷入一个矛盾的处境</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">：</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">在空间上</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">盈利的空间越来越大</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">（</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">赔率提高</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">）</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">但在中短期概率上</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">亏损是更大的概率</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">（</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">中短期胜率降低</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">）</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">所以</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">在连续下跌中要不要买入</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">这个问题问的是</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">你的投资体系是赔率优先</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">还是胜率优先</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">？</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">如果是胜率优先</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">是长期胜率</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">（</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">确定性</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">）</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">优先</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">还是中短期胜率</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">（</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">景气度</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">）</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">优先</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">？</span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">我分成四种体系</span></strong><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">：</span></strong></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">体系一</span></strong><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">：</span></strong></span></span><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">长期胜率优先</span></strong><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></strong></span></span><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">即以长期确定性为选股买卖标准</span></strong><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></strong></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">连续下跌如果逻辑没有破</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">当然是可以买的</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">这就是</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">“</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">赔率决定买入点</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">”</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">但股价下跌并没有改变长期赔率</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">所以是否买入与是否暴跌无关</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">所以在</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">“</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">长期胜率优先</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">”</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">的体系中</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">选择高确定性公司长期持有才是盈利模式</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">抄底反而不重要</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">体系二</span></strong><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">：</span></strong></span></span><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">中短期胜率优先</span></strong><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></strong></span></span><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">即景气度投资</span></strong><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></strong></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">连续下跌的个股</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">即使逻辑没有坏</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">也常常是中短期经营出现了不确定性</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">即景气度下降</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">此时反而是卖出而不是抄底</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">除了非基本面的原因引发的暴跌</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">不影响景气度</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">才可以抄底</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">但仍然受到确定性对应的仓位上限的限制</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">体系三</span></strong><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">：</span></strong></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">“</span></strong></span><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">赔率优先</span></strong><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">”</span></strong></span><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">与景气度配合的中短期策略</span></strong><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></strong></span></span><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">即更注重赔率的景气度投资体系</span></strong><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></strong></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">暴跌是重要的买入策略</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">但需要考察相对于景气度的变化</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">股价是否超跌</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">即</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">不超跌不补仓</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">体系四</span></strong><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">：</span></strong></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">“</span></strong></span><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">赔率优先</span></strong><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">”</span></strong></span><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">与确定性结合的长期策略</span></strong><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></strong></span></span><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">即困境反转</span></strong><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></strong></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">这一类个股未来股价向上的空间本来就很大</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">是相当长的投资时间内实现的</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">买入价的降低</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">对年化收益的提升作用不明显</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">事实上</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">对赔率的提升也非常有限</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">这个策略更在乎反转的时间拐点</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">以提升投资效率</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">而不是低买入价</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">暴跌也不是补仓的最好的时机</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">上面四个价值投资的体系中</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">只有体系三有暴跌抄底的方法</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">体系二反而要在下跌中卖出</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">所以说价值投资最重要的永远是基本面</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">价格是其次的因素</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: justify;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">赔率</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">、</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">胜率和出手频率</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">是体系中的交易部分</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">当交易形成体系后</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">还需要与之相适应的研究体系</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">——</span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">基本面研究</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">并非所有人都是越深越好</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">关键要适应你的投资体系</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(76,76,76); letter-spacing: 0.5px;\\\">。</span></span></span></p><div style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; max-width: 100%; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; max-width: 100%; letter-spacing: 0.5px; color: rgb(76,76,76); box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word;\\\">若是实在无法抉择到底买哪个</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; max-width: 100%; letter-spacing: 0.5px; color: rgb(76,76,76); box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; max-width: 100%; letter-spacing: 0.5px; color: rgb(76,76,76); box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word;\\\">可以两个组合各买一半</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; max-width: 100%; letter-spacing: 0.5px; color: rgb(76,76,76); box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word;\\\">。</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; max-width: 100%; letter-spacing: 0.5px; color: rgb(76,76,76); box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word;\\\"></span></div><hr style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 0 0; border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1); -webkit-transform-origin: 0 0; -webkit-transform: scale(1,0.5); transform-origin: 0 0; transform: scale(1,0.5);\\\"/><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; max-width: 100%; letter-spacing: 0.5px; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word;\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(76,76,76); box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word;\\\">思想钢印，雪球2020年度十大影响力用户奖得主，主理的“定投需要信仰”基金组合选择了消费、科技、医药、高端制造和金融这五个行业，通过“行业轮动”策略<strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: 0.5px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(76,76,76); box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word;\\\">以获取长期稳健投资收益</span></strong>。</span></strong></span><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(0,122,170); letter-spacing: 0.5px; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word;\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word;\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; max-width: 100%; caret-color: rgb(0,122,170); box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word;\\\">扫描下方二维码直接购买！</span></strong></strong></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word;\\\"><img src=\\\":/2625ca8fb18e464eaddde6c129dd0cf3\\\" type=\\\"image/png\\\" data-filename=\\\"640.png\\\" style=\\\"--en-marks: %7B%22align%22%3A%22center%22%7D; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word; __visibility: visible; width: auto; height: 260px;\\\" width=\\\"auto\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(136,136,136); letter-spacing: 0.5px; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word;\\\">本文内容所涉具体股票和基金</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; max-width: 100%; letter-spacing: 0.544px; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(136,136,136); letter-spacing: 0.5px; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(136,136,136); letter-spacing: 0.5px; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word;\\\">不构成任何投资建议</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; max-width: 100%; letter-spacing: 0.544px; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(136,136,136); letter-spacing: 0.5px; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word;\\\">，</span></span></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(136,136,136); letter-spacing: 0.5px; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word;\\\">投资者的所有决策应该建立在独立思考基础之上。</span></p></div></div></div></div></div></span>\\\n</div></body></html>\\u0000\"]],\"start1\":0,\"start2\":0,\"length1\":0,\"length2\":179611}]"
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