id: 0180dfc2b3364fca82e402bf7becb981
parent_id: 
item_type: 1
item_id: 846e4b1bb29b44839e0c0cba12475a61
item_updated_time: 1764345620345
title_diff: "[{\"diffs\":[[1,\"为什么要All in 台积电？\"]],\"start1\":0,\"start2\":0,\"length1\":0,\"length2\":15}]"
body_diff: "[{\"diffs\":[[1,\"<html>\\\r\\\n<head>\\\r\\\n  <title>为什么要All in 台积电？</title>\\\r\\\n  <basefont face=\\\"微软雅黑\\\" size=\\\"2\\\" />\\\r\\\n  <meta http-equiv=\\\"Content-Type\\\" content=\\\"text/html;charset=utf-8\\\" />\\\r\\\n  <meta name=\\\"exporter-version\\\" content=\\\"YXBJ Windows/608924 (zh-CN, DDL); Windows/10.0.0 (Win64); EDAMVersion=V2;\\\"/>\\\r\\\n  <meta name=\\\"content-class\\\" content=\\\"yinxiang.peso.superNote\\\"/>\\\r\\\n  <meta name=\\\"application-data:yinxiang.noteLayout\\\" content=\\\"{\\\"lineSpace\\\":\\\"recommend\\\",\\\"paragraphSpace\\\":\\\"recommend\\\"}\\\"/>\\\r\\\n  <style>\\\r\\\n\\tbody, td {\\\r\\\n\\t  font-family: 微软雅黑;\\\r\\\n\\t  font-size: 12pt;\\\r\\\n\\t}\\\r\\\n  </style>\\\r\\\n</head>\\\r\\\n<body>\\\r\\\n<a name=\\\"37180\\\"></a>\\\r\\\n<h1>为什么要All in 台积电？</h1>\\\r\\\n\\\r\\\n<div><span style=\\\"\\\"><div style=\\\"max-width: 700px;\\\"><p></p><div style=\\\"--en-blockquote: true; box-sizing: border-box; border-left: 3px solid #b4c0cc; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;\\\"><div>原文链接: <a href=\\\"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzk0ODUzNzI4OQ==&amp;mid=2247485921&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=4a1763ba7da0df373259f592164ad26a&amp;chksm=c2dff2154f13f9775cc56a8421fe24926da316c8233a5dbcccee5698fc1f995733e0871c0915&amp;mpshare=1&amp;scene=1&amp;srcid=01170FgrDVNK4aI0N4a9A27H&amp;sharer_shareinfo=e6399dd1063ed977a1a761fb569fcdc3&amp;sharer_shareinfo_first=e6399dd1063ed977a1a761fb569fcdc3#rd\\\"><span>http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzk0ODUzNzI4OQ==&amp;mid=2247485...</span></a></div></div><p></p><div style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><div style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><div style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><div style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\">原创</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"> Leslie吴梓豪 </span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><a style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"> 梓豪谈芯 </a></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><em style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"></em></span></div><div style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(205,205,205);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">本文为笔者</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">2025</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">年全球半导体展望系列文章的一部分，刚好可以来谈谈为什么药</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\"> all in TSMC </span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">，看玩你将会有各全盘的了解，文章两万多字请保存并慢慢从多维度去了解</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">TSMC</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">以及全球半导体行业机将发生的未来。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(16,17,19); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><img src=\\\":/bfa5b4eb058f4736842fb8ebd4fb0ad0\\\" type=\\\"image/jpeg\\\" data-filename=\\\"640.jpg\\\" style=\\\"--en-marks: %7B%22align%22%3A%22center%22%7D; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; caret-color: rgb(0,0,0); color: rgb(0,0,0); letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; width: auto; height: 383px;\\\" width=\\\"auto\\\"/><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(16,17,19); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">2024</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">年已经收官，回顾今年的整个半导体行业，与往年一样精彩纷呈，跌宕起伏。</span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">2024</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">年的全球半导体行业最重要的看点，笔者总结为四。</span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\"><b style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\">1. 芯片制程进入</b></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\"><b style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\">3nm</b></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\"><b style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\">节点，后摩尔定律时代正式开启。</b></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\"><b style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\">2. AI</b></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\"><b style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\">继续主导整个半导体行业增长与创新。</b></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\"><b style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\">3. </b></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\"><b style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\">中美半导体竞争进入白刃战，双方脱钩加剧。</b></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\"><b style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\">4. </b></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\"><b style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\">中国半导体突破如火如荼，赌上国运奋力一击。</b></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">以下就针对上述各点展开聊聊</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\"><b style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\">一</b></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\"><b style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\">. </b></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\"><b style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\">芯片制程进入</b></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\"><b style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\">3nm</b></span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\"><b style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\">节点，后摩尔定律全新时代正式开启。</b></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">2023</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">年半导体进入</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">3nm</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">时代，传统摩尔定律的定义早以力不从心，其实早在</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">2016</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">年运行了</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">50</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">年之久的国际半导体技术发展路线图</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">IRTS</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">就不再更新，</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">2017</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">年改用</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">IRDS</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">，而</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">2024</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">年正是</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">IRDS</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">预计的</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">COMOS</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">传统微缩告一段落的一年。</span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">IRDS</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">规划的路线图是</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">2025-2040</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">年进入半导体第三阶段，</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">3D</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">与功耗微细化阶段，与</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">1975-2002</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">的几何微细化的第一阶段以及</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">2002-2024</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">年的等效微细化的第二阶段不同，不断的依靠缩小晶硅间距，金属互联间距与电路单元高度的传统方式将终结，取而代之的是</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">more moor</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">以及</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">more than moor  </span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">主要依靠管芯</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">3D</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">结构，层间致密互联，异质异构集成，器件低功率化</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">”</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">等方案来变相实现微细化，借以延续芯片性能增长的第三阶段技术发展设想。</span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: center;\\\"><img src=\\\":/24ba59a5653849af866351e75cf731cc\\\" type=\\\"image/jpeg\\\" data-filename=\\\"640.jpg\\\" style=\\\"--en-marks: %7B%22align%22%3A%22center%22%7D; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; width: auto;\\\" width=\\\"auto\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: center;\\\"><img src=\\\":/b6bcf0ff14ef4194b1939408201bd5f8\\\" type=\\\"image/jpeg\\\" data-filename=\\\"640.jpg\\\" style=\\\"--en-marks: %7B%22align%22%3A%22center%22%7D; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; width: auto;\\\" width=\\\"auto\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">2025</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">年全球半导体将进入</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">2nm</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">时代，台积电在</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">2nm</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">也正式采用</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">GAA</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">的新型态</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">3D</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">结构，开始了</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">IRDS</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">路线图</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">2025</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">到</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">2040</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">年的第三阶段，这一阶段的开局王者是台积电，是否能延续第一阶段开场的</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">TI</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">以及横贯第一阶段中末期和第二阶段的英特尔，成为称霸整个世代当之无愧的领头羊。</span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">从</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">3nm</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">开始台积电也不在公布其每个工艺节点的晶体管密度，而改以</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">PPAC</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">（性能、功耗、面积、成本）来表述与上一代制程的提升幅度。比如台积电N2工艺将比上一代的N3在晶体管密度上提升15%，甚至每个节点开始出现细化，比如3nm工艺分为N3B、N3E、N3P以及针对高性能的N3X还有针对汽车的N3A，台积电针对制程的阐述方式跟随IRDS以PPAC以及功能性来阐述。</span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">前几年我们还可以根据MTr也就是每平方毫米百万晶体管数量来对比各家不同工艺，利用MTr对比得出三星3nm(150)远不如台积电5nm(180）的结论，避免被厂家宣传忽悠，如今最直观的MTr对比在2nm以后也将失效，未来各家多少nm制程的对比，将不再有任何意义，因为对比的完全不是同样的东西。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">当然厂家这些文字游戏只能忽悠非业内的网民，只有宣传意义，fabless客户要不要下单自然是实际评估过的，未来即便三星如同以往继续玩文字游戏，最终也同样无法获得订单，毕竟需要晶体管密度来维持竞争力以及市占率的客户，不可能会陪三星或英特尔玩文字游戏，拥有市场最好的制程工艺才能获得订单，且高度垄断集中，赢家通吃，毕竟不采用业界最先进工艺，就意味着失去市场占有率，剩下那些不需要追求性能的成熟芯片才会被其他foundry瓜分。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">在未来可预知的</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">15</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">年内，半导体制程将持续并如期的推进到</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">1.4nm</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">、</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">1.0nm</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">、</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">0.7nm</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">、</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">0.5nm</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">、</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">0.3nm</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">等等节点，但这些节点的意义与早期的摩尔定律，每两到三年晶体管密度提升一倍已不可同日而语。</span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">所以</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">2024</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">年是半导体制造技术承先启后的一年，大部分朋友可能不太清楚</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">2024</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">年也就是</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">3nm</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">转换到</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">2nm</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">的意义与重要性。</span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">2025</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">年正式进入</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">IRDS</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">的半导体技术发展第三阶段，</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">2nm</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">先进制程不再以光刻微缩为唯一推进手段，</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">GAA/CFET</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">技术，背供电技术，</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">2D</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">材料技术将越发重要，再叠加上后段的各种先进封装技术，混合键合的异质异构集成技术将给系统级芯片带来无限可能。</span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">单以</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">COMOS</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">来说，</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">2030</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">年将出现万亿晶体数量的单芯片，摩尔定律以全新的形式继续引领科技创新。</span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">半导体制造的这场技术变革，将会由台积电独领风骚，原本的两位竞争对手</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">Intel</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">与三星将很难跟进，并因为缺乏订单无法再持续投入庞大且极其昂贵的产能军备竞赛，而逐渐在先进制程竞争中被淘汰，先进制程赢家通吃的局面将在竞争者无力投入之后更加严重，未来台积电的对手我想只剩下反垄断法，没有其他。</span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">进入后摩尔时代，微缩不再是唯一重点，依靠其他方法也能维持芯片竞争力，所以台积电的竞争对手是否有机会跟上呢？</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">很显然现在看起来机会越来越小，从最基础的微缩工艺上，台积电已经领先竞争对手一个世代以上，再到先进封装技术，不论</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">CoWoS</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">或是</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">SoIC</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">台积电已经早竞争对手投入十年，更恐怖的</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">CoW-SoW</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">预计两年后可量产。</span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">再到异质异构集成，台积电不断优化的</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">CPO</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">技术将会是各大硅光方案不可或缺的唯一生产平台，他将提供各式各样的异构集成方案，让形形色色充满创意的方案的工程化量产成为可能，甚至绑定其他先进制程与先进封装方案，让客户一个也跑不掉。</span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">英特尔早期在</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">3-5</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">族的</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">CPO</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">积累与专利几乎被台积电给绕开，而台积电的方案是建立在可规模量产与成本的完美平衡基础之上，而非英特尔那些看起来唬人却无法有效落实的空中阁楼。</span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">最后是产能的构建，综观全球顶级</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">Foundry</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">，目前唯有台积电敢在没有任何订单之前就投入重资兴建庞大的产能，要知道一座</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">fab</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">的兴建需要四年以上，原本</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">7nm</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">每万片投资额在</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">25</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">亿美元左右，而到</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">2nm</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">则高达</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">70</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">亿美元以上，台积电</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">Fab20A</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">规划</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">120k</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">产能，单单一座工厂就必须投入近千亿美元，往后的节点投资额越来越大。</span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">试问，必需在四年以前开始规划并逐步投入千亿美元，每两年就要再盖一座下一世代新工厂，永远不能停止，有那一个</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">foundry</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">敢在没有任何客户订单的情况下，提前四年就投入钜资？</span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">可是如果你没有在四年以前投入钜资，即便你工艺很好有客户愿意下单，你最后也会因没有产能，无法供货而丢失订单，所以并非制程领先才有订单，敢事先投入钜资，到点有足够产能供货，同样是半导体</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">foundry</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">行业的重中之重，更是关键护城河之一。</span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">目前我们看到的是，三星以及英特尔在先进制程采取保守策略，也就是仅维持小几万片的</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">mini line</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">投入，确保工艺有竞争力再加大投入，但半导体建设周期实在太长，如果有一天英特尔制程回归荣光追上台积电，赶紧给设备商下订单，开建新产能，那也得两年时间，这两年只有原本的</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">mini line</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">产能，别说与台积电竞争订单，就是英特尔自己的芯片也得下单给台积电，产能对落后的竞争者将是一个无解的恶性循环，这是半导体</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">foundry</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">行业的一个重要特点。</span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">所以未来台积电的地位更难以撼动，因为以前只需要</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">PK</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">制程工艺，而现在除了制程，还要</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">PK</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">先进封装，还有异质异构集成，最终还有庞大产能这无可撼动的护城河，而这些要素，无一例外，台积电全部遥遥领先，而且每一项的差距还在扩大中，不是其中一两项而是所有环节都在扩大领先优势。</span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">笔者对台积电的乐观，并非简单的认知，而是经过长时间追踪且多层面对比与详细分析的结果，甚至做过某个环节被竞争对手追上的反面推演，最终还是得出某一个环节被追上，也无法撼动台积电在硅基半导体的市场地位。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">必须是一个全新的技术与业态才可能改变市场格局，目前我们还看不到中短期有任何改变机会，这犹如英特尔在70年代末打败TI，仙童，摩托罗拉，定义了CPU与摩尔定律，奠定了霸主地位后，对半导体行业长达30多年无可撼动的恐怖统治。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">所以</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">IRDS</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">规划的半导体发展第三阶段，</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">2025</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">年</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">2040</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">年半导体先进制造，将由台积电领军，至少在十年的维度，笔者实在找不出有任何新竞争者与新技术路线可以与之匹敌。</span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">对于台积电，笔者更关心的是非硅基以及量子计算的发展态势，虽然这些技术的兴起并非完全取代硅基，更多是截长补短，各自有擅长的应用领域，但也确实会影响硅基半导体的长期发展，不过这都是十年以上的故事，目前并不需要担心。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">存储芯片</span></strong></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">存储芯片上，传统的</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">DRAM</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">以及</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">NAND</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">跟新型态的高带宽</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">HBM</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">将各自在不同领域持续发光发热。</span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">DRAM</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">的平面线宽微缩也将无以为继，</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">1c</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">将在</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">2025</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">年推出，之后的</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">1d</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">工艺已经在开发中，与逻辑的</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">GAA</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">类似</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">DARM</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">也必须往</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">4F2</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">的</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">3D</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">结构发展。</span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">NAND</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">目前最先进产品为</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">2yy</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">，</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">2025</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">年末主流大厂将全部进入</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">3xx</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">，在技术路线推进上超过</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">1000</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">层的产品也计划在</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">2032</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">年推出。</span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: center;\\\"><img src=\\\":/c6d6ae70d0d049b6888059e1c313b9c6\\\" type=\\\"image/jpeg\\\" data-filename=\\\"640.jpg\\\" style=\\\"--en-marks: %7B%22align%22%3A%22center%22%7D; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; width: auto;\\\" width=\\\"auto\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">HBM</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">基于</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">DRAM</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">微缩的基础上还加之堆叠封装，所以推进速度会高于</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">DRAM</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">，</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">2024</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">年海力士基于</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">1b</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">的</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">12hi HBM3e</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">为业界最领先工艺，未来层数将会推进到</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">16hi</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">，由于高度限制，</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">16hi</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">再往上的空间有限，未来必须在</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">cell</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">结构上下功夫。</span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">HBM4e</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">开始将会与逻辑</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">GPU</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">合封，成为高度客制化产品，不再是以往的标准存储芯片，这将会改变市场格局，三星什么都具备的一条龙服务没有任何竞争优势，反而形成拖累，因为是否一条龙能力根本不重要。</span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">AI</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">芯片的要求必然是每个环节都是最优的结合，</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">GPU</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">要有最好的先进制程，</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">HBM</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">有最好的性能，再加上最优秀的</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">2.5d</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">或</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">3d</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">封装技术，三者缺一不可，三星虽然具备三者的一条龙服务，但三者每一项都与竞争有差距，对于客户来说三者在同一家制作或者分开三家没有太大区别，唯一要素就是三者都必须是最顶尖的结合，三星弱上加弱的一条龙服务，自然无法与台积电与海力士的强强联合相比。</span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">2024</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">年台积电利用其主导地位阻止三星</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">HBM</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">进入</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">NV</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">供应链历历在目，未来台积与海力士组合还将继续主导未来</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">AI</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">领域</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">GPU/ASIC</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">的制造。</span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">在与</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">GPU die</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">共封的客制化</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">HBM4e</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">时代，</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">GPU</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">与</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">HBM</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">生产厂家将会有一番主导权争夺，最终拥有无可替代的先进逻辑工艺的台积电将拿下主导权，而非金额更大数倍的</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">HBM</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">供应商，主要还是可替代性，</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">HBM4e</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">的制造商将还是维持三家的格局，而先进逻辑与先进封装制造商只有台积电一家。</span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">未来</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">HBM</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">产能不足逐渐缓节之后，长期来说</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">HBM</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">售价将随行就市，无法像现在维持极高的毛利，随着产能逐步开出以及良率提升，</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">HBM</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">单位售价也会出现下降，尤其是落后的低阶</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">HBM</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">产能，为了维持稼动率必须降低价格，降价也将迎来更多应用愿意采用价格高昂的</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">HBM</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">方案，尤其是要求较低的推理端。正因如此很长一段时间</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">HBM</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">都能维持相对传统存储芯片更健康的发展。</span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">未来的半导体制造竞争不再是简单的摩尔定律微缩这单一战场，而是多维度的技术竞争，台积电已经取得无庸置疑的多维度领先地位，甚至在与</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">HBM</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">争夺未来存算共封的新一代</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">GPU/ASIC</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">上也占据主导地位。</span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">与台积电强结盟的海力士在这几年尝到甜头之后，双方会有更紧密的联合，这又加强了海力士面对其对手三星与美光的竞争力，尤其是在未来进入客制化的</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">HBM</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">时代，用哪一家，什么规格都是事先确认好的。</span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">三星则必须采取守势，而非浪费精力拉长战线，在逻辑与台积电，存储与海力士多点作战。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">强力捍卫其传统</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">DRAM</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">的技术优势是三星的重中之重，毕竟</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">DRAM</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">庞大基本盘才是安身立命的根本，如果这一块因为海力士获得</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">HBM</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">优势之后，慢慢蚕食</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">DRAM</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">市场，无法维持</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">DRAM</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">技术优势对三星来说将是灭顶之灾。</span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">美光则不提了，每一个部分都不具备优势竞争力，只能坐稳千年老三，永远都是存储市场景气转换周期中表现最差的那一个，在周期高峰自然是能分一杯羹，身处美股也是唯一可选择的存储芯片标的，跟随存储景气高周期，炒一下</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">HBM</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">热点没问题，但不具备长期投资逻辑。</span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">未来存储的王者在这两年已初露锋芒，并在</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">2024</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">年奠定地位那就是海力士。</span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">总结未来的半导体制造领域，近几年表现强势的台积电与海力士，在</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">2024</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">年确定了其优势地位，可以预见的未来，他们将与竞争对手拉大差距，我们没有看到任何竞争对手在中短期有拉近差距的可能性，他们将是未来五年半导体制造的唯二最优选，没有其他。</span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(229,231,235);\\\">二. AI继续主导整个半导体行业增长与创新。</span></strong></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(229,231,235);\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">围绕AI的半导体硬件创新进入下一新篇章，主要分为以下几个方向，GPU die更高的晶体管密度，GPU更大的封装尺寸，垂直3D封装，HBM更高的存储密度以及带宽，存算合封，以及CPO/OIO的异构集成。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">移动终端的SOC因受限体积以及电池，只能死嗑晶体管密度以及3D先进封装。未来AI对端侧的算力需求以及各类将爆发的MR产品的算力需求，都意味着手机必须要有更高的算力才足以支持。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">这让我想起国内大行其道的一句话，手机芯片28nm足矣，或者7nm跟3nm芯片使用起来没有区别，殊不知历来各式各样的技术演变，都是基于更高的算力，基于摩尔定律的不断推进，才让原本不可能的技术，慢慢变成可能，而国内舆论这些似是而非的论调大行其道，实乃行业之悲。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">无论如何，半导体行业这几年由于AI出现了大型化的技术路线，与几十年来芯片越来越小的技术趋势出现分歧，这个分歧主要是功能性的分歧，不代表整个半导体发展趋势，不受体积限制的服务器芯片大型化，受体积限制的应用如移动端则持续小型化。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">2024台积电独揽全球CoWoS以及SoIC业务，这样的垄断势头未来将继续维持。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">2025年台积电CoWoS产能将继续大幅度攀升，年产能将从2024的320k，增长到2025年底的700k+，2026年大约是900~1000k。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">SoIC的月产能2023年到2026年，分别为2k、5k、8k、16k，预计2027年也能保持50%以上的增长。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">进入2025年，CoWoS+SoIC的封装形式将被AI芯片广泛应用，随着先进封装的门槛又提高，这又增加了台积电的无可替代性。 </span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">我们从2024台积电技术研讨会上公布的进展来看，2026年将会出现5.5倍reticle的SoW，比现行英伟达的Blackwell的3.3-ret有翻倍的增长。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><img src=\\\":/f27180cb6bee4dbfa29a23f7bb92c2d4\\\" type=\\\"image/png\\\" data-filename=\\\"640.png\\\" style=\\\"--en-marks: %7B%22align%22%3A%22center%22%7D; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: medium; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; width: auto;\\\" width=\\\"auto\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">我们要知道一个，现有的光刻技术能支持的最大曝光区域面积，一个shot是26mm*33mm，也就是858mm2。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">Blackwell是3.3倍ret也就是2500mm2左右，再加上8个HBM，以及各单元的框线，所以interposer面积超过4000mm2，最终在70659mm2的硅晶圆（cowos-s)或有机材料(cowos-l)上，扣除圆周边缘无法利用的区域，最终可以切出14颗GPU，并放在6400mm2的substrate基板上，要知道上一代英伟达Hoper的interposer面积在1800mm2左右，一片晶圆可以切出29颗。 </span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><img src=\\\":/d6a757d53b0943bda66fb66c5223875e\\\" type=\\\"image/png\\\" data-filename=\\\"640.png\\\" style=\\\"--en-marks: %7B%22align%22%3A%22center%22%7D; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: medium; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; width: auto;\\\" width=\\\"auto\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">2026年推出的下一代GPU Ruby，从台积电的技术路线图可以知道的是5.5倍ret ，单单逻辑单位就4700mm2，加上12个HBM，以及I/O，interposer将超过6000mm2，如果继续采用原本12”的原型晶圆或有机材料，在巧妙的layout之下，一次最多只能切割6或者8颗 Ruby GPU。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">未来在interposer不断放大之下，现有以12“圆型规格的介质层将会是极高的成本，比如Ruby一次只能切6/8颗，几乎是不可容忍的极限，但根据台积电的技术路线5.5-ret可不是终点，2027年将推进到8-ret的产品，interposer必然超过8000mm2，以12”圆形有机材料为载体的CoWoS-L方案在此时只能被无情淘汰。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">取而代之的是FOPLP封装，台积电510mm*510mm的方形基板将取代以12”晶圆为介质载体的传统方案，510*510的面板极方案除了面积扩大3.5倍以外，方形基板几乎没有耗损更是关键。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">我们以Ruby为例，传统方案只能切割6-8颗，而FOPLP方案可以一次切割40颗，这是在经过相同的工艺流程之后，一次可切割的数量，这将导致成本的天差地别。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">除了基板变成510*510的方形以外，材料也会从CoWoS-L有机材料变成玻璃基板，这一个技术趋势也是明确了，玻璃基板有更好的热稳定性以高平整度两大优势，确实是下一代高性能运算的优选，目前主要难题是在加工的易碎性，预计随着上下游产业链不断的努力，一整套完整的加工方案也将越发成熟，2027年与FOPLP一起推出市场，在其他更小型的应用上玻璃基板与相应的TGV技术可能会更早推出。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">下图我们也可以看到博通的未来方案，2026年博通也将推出3.5D XDSiP平台，最多6000mm2的3D堆叠以及12个HBM，并将于2026年问世。 </span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><img src=\\\":/1436788807b54cc1b181cec46987fd9a\\\" type=\\\"image/png\\\" data-filename=\\\"640.png\\\" style=\\\"--en-marks: %7B%22align%22%3A%22center%22%7D; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: medium; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; width: auto;\\\" width=\\\"auto\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">博通的这个平台，正是基于台积电的CoWoS-L＋SoIC技术，博通自研的铜混合键合HCB以F2F（有别于传统F2B方案）的bumpless技术，直接连接上下芯片的金属层解决方案。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">未来不论英伟达或AMD的第三方GPGPU或者各家自研的ASIC都离不开台积电的制造技术，也就是说台积电研发的各种制造技术，让全世界所有fabless在其基础上优化自己的解决方案，但无论你如何优化，都离不开台积电的制造技术。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">上述总总就是台积电的3D Fabric先进封装技术联盟，属于台积电OIP开放创新平台联盟的六个分支之一，OIP联盟，包含EDA联盟，IP联盟，云联盟等等，全球所有相关领域的顶尖公司都在台积电OIP联盟之下，连竞争对手三星与英特尔也必须寻求加入。 </span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">从上图可以看出，OIP联盟的其中一支，3D Fabric联盟提供的技术支持，分为3D 硅堆叠与先进封装两大分项，技术平台分为SoIC、SoWoS、InFO三大类。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">上述博通的3.5D XDSiP平台的F2F技术就是来自于台积电3D Fabric中凸块式SoIC-P的技术。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">而SoIC技术也可以搭配CoWoS或InFO，比如AMD的Mi300芯片采用的CoWoS+SoIC，这也是未来英伟达Ruby以及博通等ASIC厂家的未来技术趋势。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">又比如，Cerebras与特斯拉采用台积电的InFO-SoW技术，在一片12”晶圆上制作一颗芯片，由于芯片是方形，在70659mm2的原型晶圆上极限只能做出46225mm2的方形芯片，接近35%的面积被浪费了。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">所以Cerebras的三代WSE面积都是46225mm2，在面积不变的情况下，2019年的WSE-1采用台积电N16工艺，1.2亿晶体管以及18GB的片上SRAM内存。2021年的WSE-2采用台积电N7+工艺，2.6万亿晶体管＋40GB SARM 。 2024推出的最新WSE-3，采用N5工艺，4亿晶体管＋44GB SARM。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">特斯拉DOJO芯片也是采用台积电InFO-SoW技术，目前已推进到第二代。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">2027年台积电还将在InFO-SoW的基础上推出结合SoIC的CoW-SoW，这很可能改变未来GPGPU以及ASIC的技术演变。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">基于台积电所提供千变万化的制造可能性，未来业界将有更多新型态的GPU面市，这对不论是如英伟达或者是如博通等fabless都将是另一个新挑战，再加上第一点所提及的台积电FOPLP以及CPO等新技术，台积电无远弗届的制造平台，将如鸦片一般令不论哪一家fabless都无法自拔。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">上述的3D Fabric先进封装，只是台积电ＯIP联盟六个分支之一，包含早就是行业领头地位的EDA与IP联盟，OIP联盟的成功是台积电软实力的杀手剪，也是未来台积电第三代掌门人，现职台积电副营运长，台湾半导体公会理事长侯永清呕心沥血的杰作，因为OIP的成功，侯永清成为台积电未来掌门人的第一候选人。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">绝大部分人无法理解OIP联盟的作用，但他正是台积电成为现今半导体霸主的重要因素，相关细节探讨，笔者令文说明，这就不再阐述。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(229,231,235);\\\">HBM </span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">参考集邦科技报告，2025年HBM产值有望翻倍增值增长来到345亿美元，占全球DRAM总产值有机会超过30%，比2024年的20%大幅度提升。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">同时HBM也将拉动DRAM总产值突破1100亿美元，2025年DRAM总产值的增量将有很大一部分来自HBM的增量。 </span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><img src=\\\":/4340b057f07d4696ba51ccff4b49cc22\\\" type=\\\"image/png\\\" data-filename=\\\"640.png\\\" style=\\\"--en-marks: %7B%22align%22%3A%22center%22%7D; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: medium; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; width: auto;\\\" width=\\\"auto\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">由此可以分析出，HBM产值占比30% ，产出产能占整个DRAM约10%左右，在加上HBM良率比DRAM更低，也就是说HBM单位价格高出DRAM 3-4倍左右。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">根据集邦科技报告，2025年全球DRAM位元产出将年增25%，其中Conventional DRAM位元出货将增幅15%左右，属于历史偏低水平，但由于DRAM价格将在2025年走跌10%左右，预计传统型DRAM的产值将只有小幅度提升。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">而HBM的产值的增量将是2025年全球DRAM增量的绝对大头。这个增量三大存储大厂又如何分配呢？ </span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><img src=\\\":/b9c3e9d5beaf4330bf46efb78cd9d99f\\\" type=\\\"image/png\\\" data-filename=\\\"640.png\\\" style=\\\"--en-marks: %7B%22align%22%3A%22center%22%7D; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: medium; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; width: auto;\\\" width=\\\"auto\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">2025年底全球HBM总产能将来到54万片/每月，比2024年底呈现翻倍的态势。但由于三星调整其平泽P3L工厂的产能，2025年底全球HBM总产能实际上将只有51万片/每月。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">从产能分布上看，明年海力士将有225%的增长，三星只有30%增长，美光则高达300%，但由于美光基数太小，还是市场末位，与前两大差距甚大。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">三星在经历英伟达NV的认证风波之后，基本了解其在AI/ASIC用的HBM上的弱势地位，因为除了产品本身的竞争力确实与海力士有差距以外，台积电这类规格制定者的影响力逐渐成为主导认证能否通过的要素，所以原本信心满满的三星在2025年的扩产计划是20万片，最终调整到17万片，仅仅比2024年增长30%。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">三星下调扩产产能的一个重要原因是2024年其稼动率一直不高，虽然2024年全球HBM产能极度紧缺，但因三星迟迟无法通过NV的认证，大部分ASIC厂家均是无法采购到海力士HBM才退而求其次使用三星。美光的量基本供给NV但产量实在太小，无足轻重。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">因为海力士与美光产能实在不足应付英伟达，最终才在特供版的H20的HBM3上开口子，三星HBM3e产品至今还没有通过NV认证。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">HBM的大赢家SK海力士将继续在2025年掌握HBM市场，28万片的月产能将成为最大产能拥有者，而且稼动率大概率来是能维持满产满销。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">有了三大各家的产能，那我们还得了解或推算他们的稼动率，才能分析出，2025年的HBM市场将会是怎样的光景？</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">首先我们得推算一下，全球HBM的总需求是多少？</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">这个数字我们可以从台积电CoWoS产能反推，毕竟全球99%的HBM都用在与CoWoS封装的AI芯片上。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">2025年台积电CoWoS年产能将达到700k，其中每片可切割14颗的B系列占300K＋，再加上每片29颗的H系列50k＋，各大CSP的ASIC形形色色的规格，由于很多上一代产品切割数量较大，我们粗略的平均这700k每片平均可切25颗GPU/ASIC，也就是2025年全球GPU/ASIC的出货量将在1750万颗左右。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">这1750万颗GPU/ASIC有的每个配置6颗HBM有的配置８颗，2025年还没有12颗HBM方案，所以平均7颗来计算，总共需要12,250万颗HBM。再加上一些特殊需求，2025年全球HBM的总需求量应该在13,000颗的水平。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">这个推算，我们从集邦科技明年HBM产值约345亿可以相互佐证，目前HBM每GB大概在10-15美元，一颗24GB的HBM为288美元左右，我们刚推测总需求1.3亿颗，总金额大约是370亿美元，两者大差不多差，毕竟笔者也只是推算各大概，数字也不追求精准，主要是让大家对整个市场有个大概的轮廓，再去理解这个市场。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">有了总需求量，我们来看看总产能，2025年年底总产能来到51万片/每月，由于产能是逐步开出，所以我们取2024年末以及2025年末的平均数换算2025年全年总产能大约为468万片。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">由于HBM的DRAM die有许多TSV孔，要达到同样的存储密度必须放大面积，一般会比传统DRAM大40%，die size我们以70mm2计算，扣除晶圆边缘以及良率，每片毛估有630颗不同等级的good die。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">过程的TSV主要是慢，良率到不会有太大损失，12hi 堆叠封装的良率以80％计算，最终每片很粗的估计可以获得42颗 12hi的HBM 。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">刚才我们有推算2025年全球总产能在468万片，每片42颗，也就是说依照最大产能，将有19,656万颗的HBM可以被生产出来。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">而我们刚才又算了全球HBM总需求是13,000万颗左右，那就代表产能是过剩的，三大HBM生产商的整体稼动率最终只能在不到70%的水平。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">而70％只是总体稼动率，主要只是让大家明白，2025年HBM整体产能是过剩的。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">其实2024年HBM的总产能也是过剩的，但行业里却极缺，为什么会产生这样的悖离，主要还是拥有最大产能的三星因无法通过最大客户NV的认证，导致有很大一部分产能是闲置的。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">当然这个闲置对三星来说也还好，这些产能他可以用来生产DDR5等传统DRAM，闲置的只有TSV设备，并非整条生产线，反而因为HBM占用庞大的DRAM产能，传统DRAM在市场没有增加的情况下，供给大量减少，反而价格噌噌往上涨，三星庞大的DRAM产能反而是2024因HBM大涨的最大受益者。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">长期来说三星能获得这样的好处只能是初期的产能不足期间，在2025年大量针对HBM的DRAM产能开出来之后，传统DRAM也将出现供过于求。所以我们看到三星保守的下调了2025年的HBM扩建产能。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">2025年，三大HBM厂家的稼动率，海力士基本还是满产满销，依照他的产能大概可以产出9000万-1亿颗左右的HBM，剩下的还有4000万颗的缺口，美光大约是1500万颗，由于产能少也是NV合格供应商，基本上也是能满产满销，最终剩下2500万颗由三星拿下。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">这基本也符合2024年的三大家的态势，但由于海力士的产能已经可以满足全球65%左右市场，2024年很多因为拿不到海力士HBM的客户将大部分可以拿到，2024年海力士的产能也只有全球的45%，但市占却有50多％，说明他是满产满销，而竞争对手的产能有部分是闲置的。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">2025年海力士在HBM的市占率从50%提升到65%甚至更高，毕竟他的HBM确实是市场首选，稼动率必然可以维持90％以上，剩下的才有其他竞争对手瓜分。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">也就是说海力士在HBM的强势地位将在2025年进一步加强，这一点是毫无疑问的。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">但三星在2024年上半年展现出的因DRAM上涨的强势，将在2025年不再复见，毕竟传统DRAM市场并没有太多复甦，HBM挤压效用也将不再，如果三星的HBM在2025年还无法进入NV的核心产品供应链，那将是存储三强中营收增长表现最差的。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">千年老三美光，那为不足道的HBM产能，在年增率上是最高的，凭藉NV供应链，并不大的产能将会有不错的稼动率，以增量来算，如果美光新增的HBM产能也能维持满产满销，那将给美光带来20~30亿左右的营收增量，对应期只有200多亿的年营收，还是有不错的增长率支撑。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">2025年美光或许整体也好不到哪去，但无论如何增长率能高于三星存储部门问题应该不大。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">至于新技术上，2027年将出现的HBM4e与GPU共封的技术，几乎也是由台积电与海力士强强联手，并由台积电来主导硬件制造的相关规格，而美光作为产能替补，三星在未来的市场格局上，确实不太乐观。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">记得笔者在2015年也就是十年前评论过英特尔，台积电与三星的竞争格局，当时分析的各家利与弊因素，每一项似乎都在一一实现中。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">笔者认为当时英特尔的世界第一岌岌可危，如日中天的三星来势汹汹，确实在两年以后依靠存储的大行情，打败英特尔登顶世界第一，存储、液晶面板、手机、电子产品，全部都是世界第一，逻辑先进制程对台积电也是领先半年，可面对如此强大没有任何缺点的三星，笔者在当时看到了2000年代的索尼的影子，索尼也是因为从头到尾什么多做最终而倒下，其实当时分析的细节有很多，这就不一一赘述。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">专精化才是半导体行业的出路而不是啥都做的巨无霸，这一点半导体行业经历几十年的风风雨雨之后屡试不爽。2015年东芝破产，台积电在最有希望拿下当时全球最大NAND制造商东芝的情况下，短暂评估之后就放弃竞争，这一个可以直接进入存储领域千载难逢的好机会，台积电硬生生放弃，当时笔者也甚为可惋惜，拿下东芝台积电自然可以走三星的模式，不断的壮大成为巨无霸企业，但现在看来不的不服台积电管理层的睿智，当时的这种取舍现在回想，真的是我们得好好学习的大学问。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(35,36,39); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal;\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\">CPO/OIO</strong></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(20,21,22); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">2024的半导体行业重大热点之一无非就是CPO，今年以来的台积电全球技术论坛，不论哪一场CPO都是重点，9月的SEMICON Taiwan除了台积电，英特尔，博通也大谈CPO的未来。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(20,21,22); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">12月份的IDEM 2024 ，台积电再一次展示了其硅光平台，市场小作文称台积电2025年即将推出真正能落地的CPO技术平台，客户为NV，一石激起千层浪，原本以为还有好几年的CPO应用已经近在眼前，最慌的自然是国内这两年兴起的光模块厂家，易飞扬的振东总还写了一篇刷爆全网的&lt; CPO对光模块到底是利空还是利好&gt; 的雄文，引发各界讨论。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: center;\\\"><img src=\\\":/b8ffb7655202466799d95f06f1b5e5fe\\\" type=\\\"image/jpeg\\\" data-filename=\\\"640.jpg\\\" style=\\\"--en-marks: %7B%22align%22%3A%22center%22%7D; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; width: auto;\\\" width=\\\"auto\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(20,21,22); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">笔者认为CPO是围绕在海外半导体制造生态发展来的技术，这自然是对国内光模块厂家不利，而且在1.6T可插拔遇到上限之后的技术路线明确是CPO，这对整个国内的光模块行业自然是不利，甚至是灭顶之灾。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(16,17,17); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">毕竟在光模块领域我们中国有无可替代的制造优势，CPO的即将到来咱们将如何应对，笔者将在本系列文章第四个章节中分析，这里不做阐述。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(16,17,17); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">CPO在初期阶段只局限在AI领域，事实上通信领域以及传统数据中心，依赖庞大产业链生产足够便宜的光模块还是主角，况且很多场景根本不需要1.6T如此高的传输速率，甚至800G都触及不到。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(16,17,17); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">正因如此国内正反意见的两派争论不休，再加上2025年不论光模块以及铜缆相关企业在英伟达的带领下，业绩还将持续创造高峰，要说光模块或者铜缆不行，很多行业相关或者投资者肯定是无法答应的。比如为此发文的振东总。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(16,17,17); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">2025至2026上半年也就是跟随NV Blackwell这一代，高单价的1.6T可插拔自然是让光模块厂家业绩噌噌往上的动力，但可以确定的2026年下半年，随着下一代Ruby的推出，光模块也将划上句号，CPO将正式进入大发展时代。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: center;\\\"><img src=\\\":/c0a0ed18e21641659db4fe25a5b5a550\\\" type=\\\"image/jpeg\\\" data-filename=\\\"640.jpg\\\" style=\\\"--en-marks: %7B%22align%22%3A%22center%22%7D; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; width: auto;\\\" width=\\\"auto\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(16,17,17); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">这意味着光模块将失去高增长，即便在传统领域光模块不会被淘汰，但失去AI光环之后，我们回想在AI没有爆发的2022年，有谁会去看光模块厂家？</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(16,17,17); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">未来在HPC领域，传统大量分离元件的可插拔OE会被高度集成的芯片所取代，这一点是毫无疑问的。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(16,17,17); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">CPO是明确的技术方向，其实发展的也挺久了，主要还是因为电信号传输的物理极限，所以采用光互联自然是突破I/O功耗墙极限的最好办法，CPO让这一切成为可能。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(16,17,17); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">发展初期，各家自己研发自己的技术，交换芯片厂家中思科，博通，迈威尔，CPU IDM的英特尔，GPU厂家的英伟达都是早早布局。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(16,17,17); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">硅光器件主要玩家在经历多年之后，涌现不少初创公司或者专注某个领域的小型公司被并购与传统玩家形成联盟，目前主要以博通，英特尔、NV+Mellanox、英特尔+Ayar lab、Juniper+Tower，其中英特尔还投资了Teramount这类通用光子耦合器厂家，可谓重兵布局并满手全产业链IP。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(16,17,17); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">但这一切似乎被台积电给打破，台积电与Intel不同之处，就是利用自己在半导体制造的领先优势，通过开放平台与全行业厂家合作，逐步构建起自己一套以硅光为核心的生态链。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(16,17,17); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">比如博通、英伟达、迈威尔、思科与Intel是竞争关系，Intel挟强大CPU统治力以及垂直整合的全环节制造能力，打造出不少专利，但终究双拳难敌四手，更何况英特尔不论在IP或者集成制造技术并非全部是最优解，更失去当初Wintel时代规则制定的统治力，所以Intel重兵投入并寄与厚望的硅光互联技术，在台积电推出完全开放的 iOLS集成光学互联系统平台之后，大概率也将失去竞争力。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(16,17,17); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">英特尔统治半导体行业30多年来的核心就是先进制造能力，永远领先对手推进摩尔定律，遥遥领先的先进制造芯片技术，让他可以制定行业规则，比如X86架构以及主导各种接口规格，整个行业形成以他为中心的生态。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(16,17,17); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">拥有全球最先进的工艺，英特尔打造业内最完善的技术与专利，每个专利看起来都很牛，但并非无可替代，唯有最领先的制造工艺才是其他人无法取代的，很多人看英特尔的衰败，找这问题看那原因，大部分人都没明白这个最根本的核心。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(16,17,17); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">所以英特尔在工艺制程被台积电赶上之后，英特尔长期以自己为中心的封闭生态一步一步崩塌。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(16,17,17); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">很可惜的是，在上上任CEO科再奇任内14nm挤牙膏失去先机之后，英特尔错失最后机会，启用了其传奇CEO葛洛夫的信奉者曾经的CTO基辛格，他们都信奉技术偏执。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(16,17,17); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">基辛格上任前董事会对是否放弃晶圆制造争论不休，随着基辛格上任代表董事会最终还是决定在晶圆制造上放手最后一搏，开启4年5节点的疯狂计划，但即便是葛洛夫的爱徒基辛格也无法力挽狂澜。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(16,17,17); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">因为趋势无法扭转，台积电在开放的平台上越走越好，接触了全世界各式设计方案，更多订单反哺台积电不断打磨其制造能力，不断的优化其工艺上的缺点。英特尔是一个封闭的恶性循环，台积电则是一个开放的良性循环，这样的模式之下，胜败已成定局。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(16,17,17); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">往回看技术狂人基辛格的上台是悲剧，确实，如果在21年英特尔完全放弃制造，如今将不可同日而语，至少工厂当时可以卖出天价，无数人抢着接手，但这纯属马后炮。在那时当下，任谁都不可能有如此远见，拚最后一次是决大部分人会作出的决定，此时自然是以为这么干是进可攻退可守的良策，殊不知正因如此导致无法快刀斩乱麻，失去了先机，这个过程我想可以让企业经营者们好好思考。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(16,17,17); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">英特尔这话题岔远了，拉回到CPO</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(16,17,17); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">其实Intel的众多牛比专利，单拿出一个都是王炸，但问题就出在刚才说的，这些并非举世无双，无可替代，比如英特尔在3-5族材料的硅光方案沉浸多年，建立了专利障碍，但台积电在刚刚结束的EIDM上发布了COUPE 2.0，其中PDK模型器件库的Si/SiN平台与有源/无源器件说明了制造技术的多样可能，而且已经进入提供工艺设计包的</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none; color: rgb(14,14,14);\\\">准备</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">量产阶段。</span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(16,17,17); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">台积电在CPO发力主要依靠其 iOLS（集成光学互联系统平台）展现在两部分，一个是COUPE 2.0也就是光引擎的制造与封装，第二部分是CI (复合式中介层），五花八门的interposer ，完全满足简单到复杂的多种封装。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: center;\\\"><img src=\\\":/9e5e05fe01e440bd8d0323f82e018b86\\\" type=\\\"image/jpeg\\\" data-filename=\\\"640.jpg\\\" style=\\\"--en-marks: %7B%22align%22%3A%22center%22%7D; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; width: auto;\\\" width=\\\"auto\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: center;\\\"><img src=\\\":/0a9b019eb74e438fbe0921f9e62e5f3e\\\" type=\\\"image/jpeg\\\" data-filename=\\\"640.jpg\\\" style=\\\"--en-marks: %7B%22align%22%3A%22center%22%7D; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; width: auto;\\\" width=\\\"auto\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(16,17,17); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: 0.034em;\\\">参考电光夜谈也是行业大神汤总的文章，台积电COUPE 2.0 解决了PIC与光纤耦合的难题，与博通，英特尔以及Senko的方案不同，台积电直接在PIC晶圆上做文章，从根本上解决耦合的难题，与以色列Teramount与IMEC合作的方案一样，容差高且支持3D的高密度耦合。</span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(14,14,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">台积电的CPO方案一个重要特点是mirco-ring Modulator方案，没有传统的MZM以及MZI器件。MRM的特点是制造技术最难，但面积非常小，制造成本以及OE带宽密度的优势明显，几乎是CPO最终极的制造方案。直接取消了三五族的半导体光放大器SOA，强化APD，可以说是很好的给未来的OIO技术铺路。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(14,14,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">MRM微环方案其实就是CPO与OIO的大一统方案，主要还是得益于台积电分子级的制程控制精度才得以实现。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(14,14,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">台积电在iOLS平台上解决了微环、光纤耦合、PIC/EIC混合键合、并提供相关pdk给第三方的话，则CPO switch门槛将大幅度降低，这将大大地促进硅光子技术的发展。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(14,14,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">上述硅光技术平台再结合台积电独步天下的IC制造能力，将彻底颠覆上述原本的CPO行业格局，让CPO成为与IC制造一样，全行业围绕台积电制造技术自行设计相关产品。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,12); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">fabless专心致力于自己设计端的IP，制造技术由台积电落实，大家在台积电平台上与台积电共同开发新的制造技术，这又绕回到了台积电DTCO设计与制程协同优化技术平台上，未来芯片制造技术真的是一环扣一环，台积电将如同狗皮膏药一般想甩都甩不掉。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(11,11,11); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">2025年CPO switch的落地将由博通以及NV引领，最终在2026年开始大规模应用，而博通与NV正是AI GPU以及ASIC的两大领军企业，他们的新一代方案都将在上述台积电先进封装以及CPO平台中展开，两大强势厂家的支持，让台积电以制造技术为导向构建的生态将更加完善与夯实，不论未来GPU与ASIC谁上谁下，台积电永远稳坐钓鱼台。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(11,11,11); background-color: rgb(255,255,255); min-height: 22px;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; caret-color: rgb(16,17,17); color: rgb(16,17,17); text-align: left; background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\">下一篇，我们就来聊聊，AI GPU与ASIC的依存或者竞争，未来数年将会如何发展与演变。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(11,11,11); background-color: rgb(255,255,255); min-height: 22px;\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(229,231,235);\\\">GPGPU与ASIC的未来市场格局推演</span></strong></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><img src=\\\":/854df2455b2e45a78ecb4f902d6e7784\\\" type=\\\"image/png\\\" data-filename=\\\"640.png\\\" style=\\\"--en-marks: %7B%22align%22%3A%22center%22%7D; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: medium; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; width: auto;\\\" width=\\\"auto\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">2023年初OpenAI的ChatGPT-4横空出世，一下点燃了全球AI市场，OpenAI在2022年底偷偷训练GPT3.5就是基于英伟达A100搭建的训练集群。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">本文主要从半导体硬件的角度来看AI的发展，而非传统计算机视角，观点可能有别于市场主流，如有偏颇大家也可以提出指正。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">2022年英伟达在OpenAI开始训练GPT3.5之后，2023年在台积电下了比前年多了近三倍的CoWoS订单，并因为2022年GPGPU还没火，手上还有30万颗A100库存。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">进入2023年，台积电开始排产英伟达A系列与Hoper系列GPGPU，一场半导体的世纪营销经典案例悄然进行中。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">2023年3月14号GPT-4正式发布，全世界为之震撼，一周之后的3月21号，英伟达GTC大会发布了Grace Hopper超级芯片，要训练AI就得买我老黄家的芯片，OpenAI与老黄的一搭一唱，开始了全球AI狂潮。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><img src=\\\":/cb30976721854fbc94eaee18bbb0e7e5\\\" type=\\\"image/png\\\" data-filename=\\\"640.png\\\" style=\\\"--en-marks: %7B%22align%22%3A%22center%22%7D; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: medium; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; width: auto;\\\" width=\\\"auto\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">令NV始料未及的是如雪片般飞来的订单，早早为此准备并预定的台积电3万片CoWoS根本不够用，随即在2月份紧急加单5千片，4月份还是不够又加了一万片，台积电CoWoS全年产能陷入严重不足已无法再加单。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">4月份由于</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">台积电</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">完全无法再挤出任何产能，NV找到了有少量CoWoS产能的amkor韩国工厂，但由于台积电不愿意提供自身的interposer ，NV旋即协调UMC提供65nm interposer， 由于DRIE刻蚀设备不足，直到第二季结束总共只出了2千片，第三以及第四季分别出了6千以及8千片，2023年second source总共出了16k，加上台积电的近47k，全年CoWoS出货63k，</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">制造出近200万颗的A系列与H系列GPGPU ，再加上2022年库存的近30万颗A100，NV在2023年总共出货近230万颗GPU。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">笔者从2023年初至今长期跟踪台积电CoWoS产能以及NV的出货数量，对每一个订单变化细节了如指掌。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">2023年初，第一波先知们，在英伟达第一次加单台积电CoWoS的时候就敏锐的发现宝藏，开始买入英伟达，这一波主要是跟台积电比较紧的投资者，真心是先知先觉，笔者当时确实掌握了加單的第一手资讯，但也没有觉得这加单有啥了不起，无动于衷。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\">3月份石破天惊的GPT-4与英伟达GTC大会连续发布之际，NV股价已从年初的150涨到280 ，由于GPT-4笔者才发现AI即将带来的惊天大变局，当时清楚记得，市场开始估算未来AI算力的增长量，算出来的都是匪夷所思的天文数字，笔者经详细判断之后，开始宣传All in NV ，OpenAI这一波宣传从4到5月份股价一直是横盘，其实这个阶段，给了第二波上车机会，那些对AI半信半疑的人始终继续观望。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">直到5月底NV将第二季业绩指引从第一季度的70亿美元环比大涨87%来到135亿美元的逆天业绩时，全球股市彻底爆发，没上车的才开始后悔，一直到10月股价突破500。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">为啥文章前面我说NV这一段操作堪称历史上最经典的世纪营销案例，除了上述与OpenAI一唱一和的发布会，NV在2022年手上近30万颗的A100库存，在第二季度释放，造成业绩大涨，要知道第二季度的业绩中，台积电CoWoS新生产的GPU还得经过矽品的bump以及工业富联的组装环节才能出货计算业绩，NV在第一季度没有释放库存，而是在新产能及将释放的第二季度同时将库存放出来，就是为了拉高第二季度业绩，这个业绩增幅将达到惊世骇俗的效果。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">结果就如我们所见，2023年第二季度环比增长87%，接近翻倍的业绩指引一出，市场就绷不住了。记得涨到400多的时候很多朋友谘询要不要抛，笔者的建议还是继续All in 。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">10月份，BIS的1017法案，限制H800不能销售之后，NV立马修改芯片直接采取物理点断的高成本方式来将低规格，只有H100性能15％的中国特供版H20在2024年3月开始出货中国大陆地区。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\">BIS要求再一次降规的1017法案一出，NV股价从500高点往下，这之中还有大摩下修H100出货的利空，股价一直调整到2024年一月再重新一波新的大涨，直到2024年4月来到接近千元的900多，调整一个月后继续上攻来到拆股前的高点1255，市值来到3.3万亿。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><img src=\\\":/613ec7ed512d4070a42be9c98a3b0b3e\\\" type=\\\"image/png\\\" data-filename=\\\"640.png\\\" style=\\\"--en-marks: %7B%22align%22%3A%22center%22%7D; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: medium; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; width: auto;\\\" width=\\\"auto\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; text-align: center; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; color: rgb(35,36,39);\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; text-align: center; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; color: rgb(35,36,39);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(229,231,235);\\\">这个截图，纪录了2023年初到2024年每一个阶段，我跟朋友们的对话，还是那句话，咱们从不马后炮</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\">笔者从2023到2024在这段时间与投资者的建议，任何时间段都是建议all in NV，不过很可惜，从200多到400多，在到900，在到冲上1255的3.3万亿市值，很多听笔者all in的同学中途因为涨太多下车了，今年1255高点之后，笔者开始建议投资者慢慢清仓NV 转成all in TSMC，或者采取重台积电轻NV的策略，主要是NV 3.3万亿市值再上去空间是有，但长期来说上涨空间可能不如台积电且风险越来越高。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">随后2024年9月经历Blackwell重新流片风波，笔者向信源了解全部经过后，撰文一万多字详细说明了重新流片的经过与后续影响，该篇文章阅读量直接5万＋。</span><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(229,231,235);\\\"><a href=\\\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzk0ODUzNzI4OQ==&amp;mid=2247484850&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=0164a1968d1e5ffca0d44ec41d7e0f6f&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\\\" style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\">https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/oDnpU9h_EF9YkYlhyLCGsA</a></span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\">其实从2023年10月笔者就是先预告BIS新规，以及2023年12月份大摩下修H100加上大V芯片达人大喊NV砍单的市场乱流，笔者就出面澄清，并没有所谓砍单，大摩下调仅仅是卖方之前一直听信小作文，把NV 的CoWoS越拍越高，事实上产能至始至终就是那么多，最终年底知道没有那么高，自然就得找理由下修，当时整个市场只有我澄清并没有砍单，所谓外资大投行大部分也只是采取安全的人云亦云方式来做分析。</span><a href=\\\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzk0ODUzNzI4OQ==&amp;mid=2247484051&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=0f689509c4eb8d3d2087e4a656ae4113&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\\\" style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\">https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/0fxfbpwmOxbBwGWZ5p6ZRw</span></a></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\">这两年每一次市场上的风波，笔者作为市场小作文澄清者，对的赞同，错的反驳，大部分结果都是正确的。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">好了，历史故事就说到这，未来才是重点，当年勇的吹嘘没必要，笔者说历史也是让读者朋友能更好的理解这个产业，建立一些正确的宏观的逻辑与认知。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">直接上图。 </span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><img src=\\\":/afa25c7a85c34d1e936817ad7175e491\\\" type=\\\"image/png\\\" data-filename=\\\"640.png\\\" style=\\\"--en-marks: %7B%22align%22%3A%22center%22%7D; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: medium; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; width: auto;\\\" width=\\\"auto\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">大家可以看到根据笔者推测，未来2025年到2027年，NV在台积电CoWoS booking的数量，在2025年150%的增长之后，2026年只剩下30% ，27年增长率近一步下滑。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">CoWoS的数量直接影响到NV业绩，因为更多CoWoS能切出更多GPU，营收自然越高，而每片CoWoS能切出多少GPU则取决interposer的面积，比如Hopper 1600mm2的interposer size 每片能切出29颗 ，Blackwell 3.3倍 ret 再加上8个HBM ，interposer接近4000mm2 ,每片只能切出14颗，未来5.5倍ret的Ruby预计只有6~8颗。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">Ruby应该是采用圆型12“有机材料作为interposer的最后一代，下一代就必须采用510*510的方形玻璃基板，又或者Ruby这一代就采用，后续我们还要关注该技术落地时间，上面图表的推算是到2027年，有可能FOPLP技术已经成熟，所以本文所有表中，都是以12”圆型基板为对比基础。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">上表中有测算CoWoS每年总量对应每一年GPGPU的卡数，均以当年各世代GPU出货比例推算总卡数，所以我们可以看到越往后，由于新一代interposer越来越大，每片CoWoS对应GPU数量有所下降，最终我们将看到CoWoS产能的年增率远远大于卡数的年增率。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">同理，台积电需要更多的CoWoS产能才能满足同等数量但面积却越来越大的GPU，这个逻辑大家必需清楚。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">根据笔者的模型，NV的业绩在2025年将突破2000亿美元，来到2100亿，在今年近1300亿营收的基础上，年增高达60%+ ，但在2026年增幅陡降，不论CoWoS booking还是营收将无法维持前几年的连续超级增长，2026年增长回归常态。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\">一个很简单的道理，从2022年短短3年，营收从200多亿美元上涨到2000多亿，这是半导体历史上是头一遭，不论是连续增长率还是营收体量，近十年来不论Intel ，三星还是台积电轮流称霸全球半导体行业龙头的时代，营收最多也只是800多亿，2025年台积电好不容易努力几十年才有破千亿的机会，英伟达从200多亿营收的小弟，仅仅用了两年就破千亿直接来到1300亿，明年直接破2000亿，单单这个增量，都是几年前全球半导体一哥的总营收。</p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">再来是连续3年超过100%的年复增长率，这样的超级增长周期是建立在AI算力，尤其是训练算力从无到有的阶段，原本几乎为零到追上行业需求自然是一个高增长过程，算力需求在被基本满足之后，增长自然得回归常态。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\">笔者认为，依照英伟达目前的业务模式，2027年将出现业绩零增长的可能。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\">当然2027年还挺久远，变数非常多，NV自然也在寻求新的增长点，比如进入ASIC领域，这将是一重点方向，如此一来，NVLink的IP能否授权，NV的ASIC跑不跑CUDA等等都是需要解决的问题点，这两个点正是NV称霸GPGPU的核心要素。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\">另一点是由于这两年为构建AI算力，GPU抢翻天，NV产品又具备高度统治力，独家垄断，毛利率逆天，怎样的定价客户都得买单，但事实上根据产业发展这是不可持续的，因为紧缺的供给端也就是产能，会随着持续扩产终有满足的一天，需求端增量在满足基本算力需求后，也会有减缓的一天，更大的问题是未来供给端还有ASIC这个成本更低，定价更合理的强力竞争者。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\">所以NV在未来训练算力需求达到平衡之后，AI开始进入应用层面的爆发期，带动推理端需求上涨的下一个阶段，由于推理要求降低，NV的产品不再具备强统治力，在这一阶段，NV将不再保持高毛利定价策略，而原本75％＋的产品毛利率将给NV带来很大的可降价空间。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">低毛利的ASIC业务自然是NV现阶段不愿意去做的，但如果坚持目前路线，将如笔者上面的表所推演，2027年有可能不再增长，所以ASIC必然是NV不想做却不得不做的业务。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\">至于用什么的方法与传统ASIC厂家竞争，NV还是占据有利地位，假如有一天走到要PK成本的田地，拥有全环节设计能力，每一个环节都是最大规模且成熟采购体系的NV自然是具备强大优势的。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">笔者粗略测算，目前CSP厂家自研ASIC要达到完整的组网能力的成本应该只有采用NV方案的40％。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; text-align: center; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52);\\\"><img src=\\\":/a68d0fb24a2244f297e2a8a85f6c5ee3\\\" type=\\\"image/png\\\" data-filename=\\\"640.png\\\" style=\\\"--en-marks: %7B%22align%22%3A%22center%22%7D; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: medium; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; width: auto;\\\" width=\\\"auto\\\"/><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">（上表中，TSMC CoWoS产能还包含如Cisco的高端switch芯片以及Xilinx的高端FPGA，并非全部是GPU/ASIC)</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">2025到2027年，笔者预计台积电CoWoS产能将分别为72万片，105万片，145万片。以NV以及AMD为代表的通用GPU对CoWoS需求增幅将低于台积电总产能增幅，以博通、迈威尔、世芯、创意为代表的ASIC增幅将高于台积电产能增幅。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">ASIC增幅在2026以及2027均能维持60以上的高增长，主要因为AI的应用在2025年开始越来越多，對於要求相对较低推理算力，针对专属功能设计的ASIC低成本方案，自然是更为合适。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">从上表推测，ASIC在2025年AI应用开始爆发后的三年也将进入超级增长周期，三年CoWoS复合增长率80%，虽然与GPGPU在2022-2025每一年超280%的三年CoWoS复合增长率不可同日而语，但80%连续三年也确实是一个黄金时代。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">ASCI CoWoS的80%复合增长率，除了ASCI数量每年增加以外，还有interposer面积变大的因素，笔者ASIC的这个CoWoS量，是根据Avgo、mrvl、alchip等厂家在台积电booking的数量加总，可是这个数量也包含了switch交换芯片，虽然带有HBM比如tomahawk的交换芯片占CoWoS比例不会太大，但上述80%的复合增长率是包含switch芯片的。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\">NV在2022-2025年以CoWoS三年280%的复合增长率，创造出营收三年100%的复合增长率的GPGPU超级增长周期。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\">2024到2027年将进入ASIC的超级增长周期，三年80%的负荷增长率又将能创造出多少的营收增长呢？</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">下面我们来看看ASIC的代表博通。 </span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><img src=\\\":/6cb0d071423241c889ae617fc1c69818\\\" type=\\\"image/png\\\" data-filename=\\\"640.png\\\" style=\\\"--en-marks: %7B%22align%22%3A%22center%22%7D; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: medium; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; width: auto;\\\" width=\\\"auto\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">2024-2027年博通的CoWoS三年复合增长率为65%，对应ASIC的业绩将从2024年的80亿美元来到2027年的400亿美元，3年复合增长率来到70%。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">上表中的营收，我们只计算博通AI业务收入的ASIC部分。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\">博通AI业务主要分为ASIC与交换机两大类，大约比例是2:1也就是ASIC占AI业务的2/3，但由于ASIC业务组成复杂，有IP费用，有设计费用，又可能有许多特殊设计比如版卡或服务器的各类芯片，与AI server有关的一且芯片都可能是博通AI业务的构成，这里面有很多与CoWoS无关。</p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">笔者推算，博通ASIC业务在2027年达到400亿美元，长期来说，交换机业务占比将会越来越高，2027年预计是40%的占比，那博通AI业务总营收将来到660亿美元，笔者的估算与博通在2024年底公布的2027年AI业务将达到600-900亿美元营收的说法相吻合。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; text-align: left; color: rgb(26,27,29);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\">至于博通的测算仅依靠三大客户，将有600-900亿的营收，这范围很大，我想是预留一些大客户的变数，比如正在流片的字节与更往后的超级大客户OpenAI ，我个人挺看好博通/OpenAI，这个点估计以后时不时都会炒一下进度。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; text-align: left; color: rgb(35,36,39);\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; text-align: left; color: rgb(35,36,39);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\">由于ASIC一定是面向大型CSP客户的，不像NV可以卖给中小企业，ASIC的客户就只有那几家相对集中好推测。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">结合2026年CPO将开始落地并大规模应用，这将给博通带来优势，其在CPO的IP具备不错的竞争力，这在未来的ASIC超级增长周期中，将给博通带来更长期且牢靠竞争优势。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\">对比一下更前面的全球ASIC的CoWoS增长，博通在2025年的增长是不尽人意的，比ASIC总增长还要低，主要是竞争对手Mrvl在2025年拿下更多订单booking了更多CoWoS产能，也就是说2025年无疑是Mrvl强势的一年。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\">2026年以后，根据笔者的推演，博通将依靠CPO的优势，增长率会反超mrvl，并一直保持领先，笔者这样的推演，符合博通自己公布的2027年AI业务600-900亿营收，同时也符合未来技术发展，应该是符合逻辑的，当然这也仅仅是个人看法。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">以上是笔者从半导体制造的角度，对未来3年AI GPU与ASIC格局演变的推演，希望可以从不一样的视角，来多方面思考市场格局。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">2023年初到2024年中，這一年多的時間，笔者是全力推荐all in NV，不论市场小作文如何猖獗，NV年终创下3.3亿市值之后，我全面转推荐TSMC 。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\">笔者估计2025年上半年NV有机会碰触或接近4万亿，高点后开始走弱，主要是2026年的低增长导致股价调整，当然这个走势还要取决文前笔者分析的NV在ASIC市场怎布局，毕竟整个AI领域，NV不论是技术还是供应链都有巨大领先优势，牢牢掌握主导权，如果市场到了没办法再继续维持超高毛利的阶段，他手上的武器一个一个放出来都是王炸，就看NV如何平衡与其战略方向了。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\">未来的AI如何发展，更终极的AGI是以什么形式出现，目前市场众说纷纭，即便是顶级科学家也是好几个流派，好几种说法，所以我们目前完全无法掌握其发展规律，现在唯一能做的只能是硬怼算力的scaling law ，但算力到底需要多少才能达到AGI，没有人知道，更何况这不只是算力，模型与算法可能更加重要。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\">虽然算力我们无法有效估算，但cowos每年的增长摆在那，对应的GPU卡数持续增长，算力芯片随着7nm/5nm/3nm/2nm一直推进，面积也从3.3-ret/5-ret/8-ret，每一代不断放大，让一切将让算力以几何倍数疯狂增长，但这样的增长就能达到AGI或者远远不够，终究还是个问号。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">我们只能以现有认知来推断，比如2027年台积电CoWoS产能将从2022年的12万片来到2027年的150万片左右，这里有12倍的提升。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\">摩尔定律持续推进，从7/5/3nm推进到2nm，加上DTCO深挖每一代的性能与功耗比，这里大约也会有10倍提升。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">GPU/ASIC大厂在互联上持续下功夫，CPO让互联跟快更低功耗，这里对功耗比有多少提升我也不明白，我们用5倍来算好了，如以一來，单单硬件物理层面的提升就是12*10*5也就是600倍的提升，在2022到2027年，5年间AI芯片的物理层面就有至少600倍提升，这应该还有我没算上的，朋友们也可以提供下意见。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">这5年600倍提升虽然是很粗略的估算，但应该只是最少，也仅仅是硬件物理层面，架构与软件层面这也有许多空间，只是我不清楚也无法量化。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">另外大模型与算法的提升更是有极大挖掘空间，比如去年硅谷很多创业公司在搞低精度训练，参数小型化，国内刚刚发布的deepseek v3更是有力的证明这个技术趋势，上述所有层面的提升全部都是相乘不是相加的关系。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">先不管AGI未来的场景，在可预见的2027年，如此的算力提升对于总算力需求到底是过剩还是不足，这一个点或许可以好好琢磨琢磨。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">到2027年变数很大，我的推演逻辑也不一定正确，但无伦如何提估了一种看法，通过这样的推算，我希望让读者可以慢慢了解这个行业，而不是人云亦云，最终能自己去分析判断行业的发展，这样的特点对投资至关重要。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\">说一千道一万，还是赶紧加入我的知识星球，里面有更多的内容，更多的观点，更多的互动让我们更多的探讨，互相学习一起进步。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: pre-wrap; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; font-stretch: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; cursor: text; counter-set: list-0 0 list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; tab-size: 4; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-width: 0; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor;\\\">以下该系列文章进入，中美竞争环节以及国产半导体现况到底有多少先进产能以及突破到底进入什么样的一个阶段，相关文章第一时间在私域星球公布，不再此公开的公众号上发表，避免被河蟹。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(12,12,12); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(11,11,11); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\"><b style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\">三. 中美半导体竞争进入白刃战，双方脱钩加剧。</b></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(11,11,11); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\">*已发表在知识星球</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(11,11,11); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;\\\"><b style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\">四. 中国半导体突破如火如荼，赌上国运奋力一击。</b></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(11,11,11); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">*未完待续，将在知识星球发布</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(11,11,11); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><strong style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">五. 2025年全球与中国半导体投资建议</span></strong></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(11,11,11); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">*未完待续，将在知识星球发布</span></p><div style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; outline: 0; white-space: normal; letter-spacing: 0.578px;\\\"><img src=\\\":/61093a4b68394ba6afc98eecb88ee5be\\\" type=\\\"image/png\\\" data-filename=\\\"640.png\\\" style=\\\"--en-marks: %7B%22align%22%3A%22center%22%7D; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; outline: 0; letter-spacing: 0.544px; caret-color: rgb(0,0,0); color: rgb(0,0,0); border-style: none; text-indent: 2em; text-align: center; __visibility: visible; width: auto;\\\" width=\\\"auto\\\"/></div><div style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; outline: 0; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; caret-color: rgb(62,62,62); color: rgb(62,62,62); text-align: left;\\\"><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(35,36,39); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(26,27,29); background-color: rgb(255,255,255); letter-spacing: 0.544px;\\\">写在今天1月16号的知识星球～</span><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(35,36,39); min-height: 21px; text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(35,36,39); text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\">台积电法说会公布业绩了，2024 4Q 26.8bn ，2025 1Q 25.0～25.8bn ，2025年营收增长率25%。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(35,36,39); min-height: 21px; text-align: left;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><br style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"/></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: left; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(35,36,39); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">笔者上周在知识星球公布最终更新的模型，正确度100%，该模型1月11号最终更新。大家可以再去看一下<span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none; color: rgb(69,100,131);\\\">台积电法说会4Q业绩指引在26...</span></span></p></div><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: center;\\\"><img src=\\\":/2167651f03704213a6c8b6be80134487\\\" type=\\\"image/png\\\" data-filename=\\\"640.png\\\" style=\\\"--en-marks: %7B%22align%22%3A%22center%22%7D; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; width: auto;\\\" width=\\\"auto\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(14,14,14); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; white-space: pre-wrap; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\">跟2024年一样，我在2Q财报公布「之前」就调高指引给出年增29%的模型，当时台积电官方跟所有外资大卖方全部还是20%的低个位数增长，台积电直到出3Q财报公布之后才调高指引。 今年会不会再调高指引，我根据我的信源再逐步调整，反正台积电的业绩推算，看咱们星球的就对了。 说实在的，我个人的逻辑都是很长时间的产业跟技術逻辑，所以方向跟趋势会看的很清楚。 季度业绩这种短期推算，必然有很大的运气成分。其实大差不差即可，了解趋势才是核心，而不是精准，这个季度猜中了，那也是很快就会过去，趋势更重要。这就是我跟做短期交易的投资朋友在基础思想上的不同，是骨子里的逻辑、认知与维度的不同。 所以很多入行时间不久的研究員，整天追cowos 追财报，看这些短期的东西，或者对产业认知不足，可能会质疑我说的好像不是那么一回事，毕竟我说的对没有行业基础的人来说超前了几个维度，而且也经常犯错，所以被怀疑很正常，我经常说错也是正常。 另外，我不是什么都能扯上两句，每家企业都懂点的卖方分析师，我只关注我有兴趣的领域与个股，也因为专注范围很小，所以在我的领域能更精益求精。每个人擅长的不一样。 行业内的同学跟朋友，基本就能理解我说的，因为他们具备很好的行业认知，本星球有一半是行业内的，全国所有fab包含花系跟半导体上下游企业都有人在咱们星球里，由于行业跟企业敏感，也不像让人知道，所以他们基本上不说话，这些人其中大部分都能认可我的看法，当然不可能全部，而且我的主观看法也不一定对。 这里面包含我经常吐槽的花系，S跟寒王的人，感谢他们能忍耐我的批评，不来怼我，当然这些朋友都是在微信怼我，没有在星球，甚至经常点赞我批评他们公司的文章</span></p><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; white-space: pre-wrap; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\">花系在咱们星球的人是最多的，毕竟他们部门多，人也多，求知欲又强，有的原本认识的，有的入了星球才加的微信，都很高兴你们的客观与理解。</span><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; hyphens: auto; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal; color: rgb(35,36,39); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; font-kerning: none;\\\">有几个国内Fab大厂的战略部门，会经常以咱们星球中我阐述的观点与内容做他们内部的探讨方向，因为大家都很熟，所以我在这自吹自擂一下，被点名的fab朋友也可以在评论区冒泡下。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; white-space: pre-wrap; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\">很多朋友追捧的各大外媒，彭博，路透，华尔街日报，或者大摩、野村、jeffries等海外各大卖方分析師，以及入techinsghts ，semi analysis，information 这些专业媒体的记者、分析师们都是我多年好友，平常我们也经常讨论热点，他们也大部分在咱们星球找找题材，看看观点。 各大卖方的报告，有一些是跟我1v1讨论的，这些倒都是不具名，以卖方的名义发表。 彭博，FT，WSJ各大外媒也经常会引用我的观点在他们的报导中，这些都是具名的，反正在外媒报导中，看到leslie 那就是咱们星球主了。 由于这些朋友的不吝讨论，我也可以获得很多行业最新或者政策相关的信息，非常感谢他们。 反倒是做交易的半调子研究员，有时候就让我挺生气，不过都是各自认知造成的误解，你看到的跟我看到的根本不一样，所以我说的话，很多人也不一定以为然，这很正常，反正星球会员那么多人，形形色色，不同立场不同认知，但不论如何，我还是挺在意会员朋友的看法的。 最后还是那句话，希望大家加入这个星球可以多学点东西，我的看法不一定对，而且也都是我主观的东西，但这是我从业20多年，投资15年以上的经验谈，所以我只谈我的主观，这才是最宝贵的浓缩精华，对错可能经常有误，但我提出的观点与思考，甚至逻辑与方向都是想要了解半导体行业的人值得关注并与之思考对错，最终形成你自己的知识宝藏。 行业数据与资料上网都能找到，大家来我星球不应该是找什么数据或资料，这些东西网上免费的一大把也很正确，没必要把咱们这当成找数据的一个星球，那真的是白瞎。</span></p><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; white-space: pre-wrap; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\">各大卖方的报告，有一些是跟我1v1讨论的，这些倒都是不具名，以卖方的名义发表。 彭博，FT，WSJ各大外媒也经常会引用我的观点在他们的报导中，这些都是具名的，反正在外媒报导中，看到leslie 那就是咱们星球主了。 由于这些朋友的不吝讨论，我也可以获得很多行业最新或者政策相关的信息，非常感谢他们。 反倒是做交易的半调子研究员，有时候就让我挺生气，不过都是各自认知造成的误解，你看到的跟我看到的根本不一样，所以我说的话，很多人也不一定以为然，这很正常，反正星球会员那么多人，形形色色，不同立场不同认知，但不论如何，我还是挺在意会员朋友的看法的。 最后还是那句话，希望大家加入这个星球可以多学点东西，我的看法不一定对，而且也都是我主观的东西，但这是我从业20多年，投资15年以上的经验谈，所以我只谈我的主观，这才是最宝贵的浓缩精华，对错可能经常有误，但我提出的观点与思考，甚至逻辑与方向都是想要了解半导体行业的人值得关注并与之思考对错，最终形成你自己的知识宝藏。 行业数据与资料上网都能找到，大家来我星球不应该是找什么数据或资料，这些东西网上免费的一大把也很正确，没必要把咱们这当成找数据的一个星球，那真的是白瞎。</span><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; white-space: pre-wrap; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); color: rgb(47,48,52); background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\">所以希望大家加入星球可以多看看文章，花点时间了解一下半导体行业，不要只是问那个股好不好，消息真不真，各种非黑即白的yes or no，因为每一件事都是复杂的组成，明白的越多，越没办法说yes or no，希望大家能理解。</span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: start;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: #2f3034;\\\"><span style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; caret-color: rgb(47,48,52); letter-spacing: normal; white-space-collapse: preserve; background-color: rgb(255,255,255);\\\">以上是今天在星球發布的一條訊息，如果對半導體行也有興趣，真心歡迎你的加入，掃下面二維碼即可</span></span></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: center;\\\"><img src=\\\":/1b9d7d3bffbf4b308f52bbed6d867f7f\\\" type=\\\"image/jpeg\\\" data-filename=\\\"640.jpg\\\" style=\\\"--en-marks: %7B%22align%22%3A%22center%22%7D; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; width: auto;\\\" width=\\\"auto\\\"/></p><p style=\\\"-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; text-align: start;\\\"></p></div></div></div></div></div></span>\\\n</div></body></html>\\u0000\"]],\"start1\":0,\"start2\":0,\"length1\":0,\"length2\":407301}]"
metadata_diff: {"new":{"id":"846e4b1bb29b44839e0c0cba12475a61","parent_id":"f67288c3a0be4374b5d532b5dcc3aabc","latitude":"0.00000000","longitude":"0.00000000","altitude":"0.0000","author":"","source_url":"","is_todo":0,"todo_due":0,"todo_completed":0,"source":"joplin-desktop","source_application":"net.cozic.joplin-desktop","application_data":"","order":1764348833929,"markup_language":2,"is_shared":0,"share_id":"","conflict_original_id":"","master_key_id":"","user_data":"","deleted_time":0},"deleted":[]}
encryption_cipher_text: 
encryption_applied: 0
updated_time: 2025-11-28T21:04:07.108Z
created_time: 2025-11-28T21:04:07.108Z
type_: 13